亚洲科技硬件：成功、失误与经验教训——2025年回顾

Asia Tech Hardware: Hits, Misses, and Lessons Learned -2025 inreview As we approsch zfe close of 2025, this report reviews what worked, whst didri', and theCmissionis jnsde n our oubshed resesrchi, slong wth the iessons lesrned. To our resders:Thank you for the support and the many engaging discusslons throughout the year.Happy hofldays, end see you in 2026! Alex Wang, CFAalexwangsocmstcirsg.ccm.96 $. 6 298+ Shirley Yang. CFAshirlexyanasbcmsteinsg.ccm+862 2123 2660 As we expected, the ramp-up of GB200 rack was slower than Nvidia's initial plan., Wewere concerned about Al sentiment in 2H25 as Al rack supply/demand balance in2026 (Nav 2024 All set for GB20C shiprrient7). However, we didn'l expecl sentirrent shifl asearly as Feb-Apr, driven by Deepseek and tariff concerrs, which more than reversed in thefellowing months. Meanwhile, CSP continue to raise capex each quarter and announced newclatscenter projects. making 2026 likely another strong growth year for Al server. Ethsn Xu Lessons learned? The deployment of Vera Rubin snd Rubin Ultre. racks coulcl fece similerchallenges to GB200 in 1H25, Sentiment wise, since 2023, Al sentiment has correctecdone to two timas per year. When hypes builds, concems about Al bubble, CSP capexadjustment, delayed preduct launches, slow monetization, circular financing. or any unknownrisks inevitably pressure stocks. That sid, Al cantirues to penetrate daily life and transfernindustries. We believe this secular trend supporls rnulli-year growth across the Al server andedge Al supply chain. 5entiment corrections will occur from time to time and often createone. Our emphasis on the critical role of thermal and power management in the Al valuechain was validated, which helped Delta and Chroma (both OP) outperformed the restpue apo ssuursng aaaae ssuj e c anp poouadapun (dn) euenp 'aBeaanog ano jointense ODM/OEM cornpetition, in our view [Asia Tech Hardware 2025 Outlock] Exhibit 1. Lessons learmed? Increasingly powerful chips demand advanced hardware cornponents.components, tecnology leaders such as Delta stand out - CSP customers value R&D,timetomarket, ancd onsite support In short, product rellabilty mstters more than cost forcritical components. For ODMs, while R&D capelility (Quanta's strength) me.tters, verticellyintegrated solutions, strong belance sheet, and global capecity help pleyers like Foxconncepture greater market share [lun 2025 Servrr 0DM/0EM primrr (2025) Exhibit 5-Exhibit 8. Unimicron's market share trajectory in Nvidia ABF was in line with our projection, butpressure from VGT (300476 CH, not covered: driven by strong management execution &automatec HDllines). These setbacks delayed margin recovery by about a yesr (continuecl on next page) Lessons learned? We often seek laggards ancl tumarcundl stories, but recovery timelinecan slip. On a supply chain perspective, despite the fragmented PCB merket (incl. HDI,substrete), selective opportunities remein wten order flow and yields improve (Nov 2025suhstrate pricing outlook & HDI competitian with VGT). The upcoming price hikes in BT &A2F substrates and improving HDI yield in the next 2-quarter have lifted Unimicron's stockperfernance (up c.6C% YTD), and we expect strong momentum tc continue intc 1026(Exhibit 9-Exhibit 14). marginally negative to Luxshare. However, Luxshare's Al nsrratives plsyed out well (Sepside, Sunny's margin recovery is on tre.ck, thenks to smartphone camera spec upgrade sndeccelerated ADAS penetration in China, But we didn't anticipete the memory upcycle thatcould wnight on Android supply chain in the reer term (Nov 2025 What histpry tells aboutmemory pricing impact on sinartphone sector7). Lessons learned? The trade war has not prevented China from supplying cormponents toAl server, especially in areas where China excels in technolcgically (e-g- optical or coopersmartphone market, we prefer consumer electronics companies that successfully diversityinto new growth1 dirivers, For the long term, we prefer Sunny (OP) over Largen (MP) for thisreason. BERNSTEINTICKERTABLE INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS Delta Electronics: We rste Delta Electronics Outperform, with PT = NT$1190. Chroma ATE: We rate Chrom ATE Outperfem, witn PT = NT$830. Quanta Computer: We rate Quanta Computer Underperform, with PT NTS250. Unimicron Technology: We rate Unimicron Technology Outperfom, with PT = NT$22O Luxshare Precision: We rate Luxshere Precision Outperform, with PT = RMB74. Sunny Optical : We rate Sunny Optical Outperform, with PT = HK$110. Largan Precision: We rale Largan Prrcision Markel-Perform, with PT = NT$2,400. DETAILS Al and Apple supply chain 9 July 2024 - Asia Tech Hardware: Inventing the future is easy, profiting from the future is harder. Initiating with a positive view7 Aug 2024 - Liquid Cooling Primer - Delta Eleetronics poised to gain from the cooling revolution16 Mey 2025 - Asie Tech Hercwere: A foldsbele iPhone? What we learned from the Androisd foldsble phone mrket06 Jun 2025 -Server QD