盈利模型更新：多项技术驱动，KkM的机遇扩大

16 June 2026 Disco（6146) 6146.T,6146JP Price (15 Jun 26):￥85,250Price Target (Dec-26):￥83,000Prior (Dec-26):￥70,000 expanding opportunities for KKM Neutral but raise our price target to ￥83,000 (from ￥70,000; by end-December2026).Wereviseouroperatingprofitestimatesfrom￥251billionto￥245billion(+32%YoY)forFY2026andfrom￥276billionto￥303billion(+24%YoY)forFY2027.We introduce anFY2028estimate of￥321billion(+6%YoY).ForFY2026,welowerourpackage-related sales assumption as weslightlyreviseourprice assumptions, but raise our volume assumptions.We raise our FY2027estimate to reflect customers'upward revisions to their HBM and packagingcapacityoutlooks.WeexpectastrongoperatingprofitCAGRof20%inFY2025-28, but remain Neutral as valuations already look high.On the technology front,we continue to focus on expanding opportunities for NAND hybrid bonding andBSPDN in the near term and PLP and HBM hybrid bonding in the longer term. Technology-SemiconductorlTechnical MaterialsMio Shikanai Ac (81-3) 6736 1313mio.shikanai@jpmorgan.comJunyaAyada (81-3) 6736 8631junya.ayada@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd Key Changes (FYE Mar)Prev Investment ThesisDemandfor generativeAI applications,which is expected to grow in the medium to long term, is increasing. Disco has a highmarket share in grinders and dicers forgenerativeAIapplications,and we expect its earnings to continuetogrow ata high rate in the future. We are keeping an eye on its capacityexpansion plans, which could be a bottleneck, and sales trendsforhighly profitable consumables.Valuation OurDecember2026pricetargetof￥83,000 isbasedonour FY2027EPS estimate (previouslyFY2026EPS)and aP/Eofaround 41x, which is one standard deviation above the 10-yearhistorical average of around 28x (unchanged).Weaddapremium in view of the improved growth outlook for the back-end process equipment market. InvestmentThesis,ValuationandRisks InvestmentThesis Demand for generative AI applications, which is expected to grow in the medium to long term, is increasing.Disco has a high market share in grinders and dicers for generative AIapplications, and we expect its earnings to continue to grow at a high rate in the future. Wearekeeping an eye on its capacity expansion plans, which could be a bottleneck, and salestrends for highly profitable consumables. OurDecember2026pricetargetof?83000isbasedonourFY2027EPSestimateandaP/E of around 41x, which is one standard deviation above the 10-year historical average ofaround 28x. We add a premium in view of the improved growth outlook for the back-endprocess equipment market. Risks to Rating and Price TargetUpside Scenario to Target Price/Rating Further expansion of generativeAI-related demand·FastergrowthintheSPEmarketforpowersemiconductors.Earlier-than-expected resumption of investmentatOSATs andother customers.Recoveryindemandforsmartphonesandotherfinalproducts Downside Scenario to Target Price/Rating Deceleration in generative-AI-related demandMargindilutionfrommixshifttowardmass-productiondemand.Entry into a downcycle in semiconductor markets.Decline in strategic investments atcustomers due to steep economic recession.Delayed recovery in demand for final products. Loss of market share are primarily responsible for this report, the Research Analyst denoted by an “AC" on the cover or within the document individually certifies,with respect to each security or issuer that the Research Analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views expressed in this reportaccurately reflect the Research Analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of any of theResearch Analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by theResearch Analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based Research Analysts listed on the front cover, if applicable, they also certify, as per KOFIArequirements, that the Research Analyst's analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect the Research Analyst's own opinion,withoutundue influenceorintervention.All authors named within this report are Research Analysts who produce independent research unless otherwise specified. In Europe, Sector Specialists (Sales and Trading) may be shown on this report as contacts but are not authors of the report or part of the Research Department.ImportantDisclosures (6146)orrelatedentities..Beneficial Ownership (1% or more): J.P.Morgan beneficially owns1%or more of a class of common equity securities of Disco (6146)or related entities..Client: J.P.Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Disco (6146) or related entities. . Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies)as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: Disco (6146) or related entities..Non-Invest