美国IT硬件量子领域：与IonQ首席财务官会议的关键要点

Quantum: Key takeaways from our meeting with IonQ CFO Last week we hosted Inder Singh, CFO of IonQ for a virtual group meeting following ourrecently published Quantum Deep dive and Expert Call. This note summarize our takeaways. Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Quantum computing approaches using natural qubits will benefit from higherfidelity due to the consistency of identical elementary particles, and from higherenergy efficiency due to lower ground-state cooling requirements.The path to fault-tolerance hinges on reaching ≥99.99% gate fidelity, which IonQ (Not Covered) achievedin October 2025 via its trapped-ion approach on a two-qubit machine. Managementestimates that commercially viable fault tolerance, which enables longer coherence timesthat support meaningful applications, will arrive within the next three years once they inventa fault-tolerant, 800+ logical qubit machine. April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Not reinventing the wheel — applying fundamental semiconductor manufacturingpractices may fix scalability constraints native to traditional trapped-ion machines.Management emphasized their pivot from optical-based qubit controls toward recentlyinnovated electronic-based controls that require far less maintenance and can be easilymass-produced per familiar integrated device manufacturing models. Additionally, IonQhas begun using CMOS layers and multiplexing to expand qubit counts, which previouslyhit a ceiling due to the difficulty of adding incremental ion-traps along single dimensions.These capabilities stem directly from IonQ’s acquisition of Oxford Ionics and Skywater,respectively, rather than pure in-house R&D. The Skywater foundry will be the future of IonQ’s quantum chip rollout as it movesaway from Infineon (IFX, covered by David Dai).Relatively slower timelines support theInfineon phaseout, with typical chip production taking 9-10 months for Infineon versus 2-3months for Skywater. Management expects efficiency gains as the foundry’s transition intothe solutions ecosystem continues since its January 2026 acquisition. IonQ has positioned itself as the current sole provider of a vertically integratedquantum solutions ecosystem that includes computing, networking, cybersecurity,and sensing.Management aims to be ready to monetize all elements of quantum and hasadopted primarily an ownership over partnership-based approach to solution provisioning,as evidenced by its acquisition spree of firms within each vertical. The company has leanedinto its organic growth phase across verticals as well, last year investing capital in R&Dthat amounted to over 2.3x 2025 revenue and more than the rest of the reported industrycombined. Funding continues to arrive in droves for IonQ through federal & defense contractsand co-developments as the global quantum arms race forges ahead.Thesecontracts are being fulfilled across the full stack of current solutions and even the nascentin-space vertical, whose infrastructure is still being built out following China’s lead insatellite deployment for quantum key distribution. Beyond government & defense clients,IonQ has begun providing on-site devices and receiving pre-orders for multiple generationsby customers like Quantum Basel. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate AAPL Outperform with TP of $350.We rate DELL Outperform with TP of $500.We rate HPE Market-Perform with TP of $62.We rate HPQ Market-Perform with TP of $27.We rate IBM Market-Perform with TP of $280.We rate Sandisk Outperform with TP of $1700.We rate Seagate Outperform with TP of $1,000.We rate Super Micro Market-Perform with TP of $37.We reiterate WDC Outperform, TP $590. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.acti