与adt首席执行官和首席财务官会面的要点

Restricted - External U.S. Business & Professional ServicesManav Patnaik+1 212 526 2983manav.patnaik@barclays.comBCI, USRonan Kennedy, CPA+1 212 526 2912ronan.kennedy@barclays.comBCI, US which could be one reason why b) full home security penetration had been stuck at ~20% fora long time. c) We also note GOOG and State Farm partnerships had potential but have notbeen needle moving;* adding fuel to this maturity thesis. d) ADT and investors admit it takestime to understand the financials, which are quite nuanced for a relatively simple businessmodel. In addition are some near-term concerns like e) the impact of housing marketrelocations (particularly as, if it were to return, it could materially impact attrition numbers)and f)tariffimpacts, which have been absorbed in FY25E guide but are TBD in the future(35-40% of product is sourced from Mexico, and underlying cost of hardware appears to be ona downward trajectory, but there is some more expensive inventory to work through).°*Note: ADT has indicated it is disappointed with a lack of progress with State Farm and°hoped to soon discuss some new ideas on what was slow progress for a high-potentialpartnership. ADT is not forecasting meaningful gross adds and sees it as a "call option" (seeADT: State Farm investment a clear positive, but impact TBD, 9/7/22). We think the Googlepartnership has finally started to show some traction.Lastly, as was the case on 4Q24 EPS call – (see ADT Inc.: Focusing on steadily improvingexecution, 02/28/25), ADT commented on its sales process and GTM optimizationinitiatives- including refinement of theofferstructure, bundling, pricing and marketing toimprove its appeal to more segments of customers and driveefficiencyin subscriberacquisition cost. The GTM optimization initiatives could support growth, profitability, andcustomer loyalty, as well as strengthen durability and resiliency should a slowdownmaterialize. We think this could include ADT potentially sharpening its focus on more price-sensitive segments of the market that haven’t been a priority for the company. We highlightDIY in particular (which is currently only ~ 100k of ADT’s 6M+ subscribers). Basic DIY as “aGateway Drug” was an analogy one of our investors used – as DIY presents an opportunity tobring new subs onto the ADT platform and grow CLTV. This is a potentially attractiveopportunity and ADT’s positioning is unique, in our view; it will be more deliberately focusedon DIY and may participate in the segment in a bigger way. We believe potential renegotiationof an exclusivity agreement with a key hardware provider would make this moreeconomically viable.FIGURE 1. Apollo significantly reduced its stake to ~22% currently*Figure 1 above illustrates Apollo ownership at respective quarter-ends. Note per 1Q25 filings, Apollo owned 32.9%. PerBloomberg, Apollo owned 23.5% as of 6/12/25, however, ADT stated it was ~22%.Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research2 •• Bloomberg consensus NTM EV/EBITDASource: Bloomberg, Barclays Research Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Manav Patnaik, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subjectsecurities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations