美敦力公司（MDT）：首席执行官和首席财务官会议要点-糖尿病业务分拆前景乐观

Restricted - External MDTOVERWEIGHTU.S. Medical Supplies &DevicesPOSITIVEPrice TargetUSD 109.00Price (30-May-25)USD 82.98Potential Upside/Downside+31.4%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchU.S. Medical Supplies & DevicesMatt Miksic+1 212 526 9189matt.miksic@barclays.comBCI, USCaroline Council+1 212 526 9046caroline.council@barclays.comBCI, USWilliam McMahon+1 212 526 3816william.mcmahon@barclays.comBCI, US multi-year process, mgmt also allocated the R&D investment required to ‘stand up’ the Diabetesbusiness with the robust pipeline of new products and innovation required for it to regain itsforward momentum in the market, and to position the business as a significant competitor inDiabetes Technology. In terms of background, MDT’s WW Diabetes business was up only 1.5%CC in F22 vs. market growth in the mid-teens range (down 17% in the U.S. due to the FDA holdon new the 780G pump approval). The business improved slightly in F23 to 2.4% CC and thengrew 8.6% WW in F24 (exiting the year with DD growth in both the U.S. and WW). The businessdelivered 11.5% WW growth in F25 (fiscal year just ended) and is positioned with a number ofnew product launches in F26 and F27 to continue to drive growth more in-line with mid-teensDiabetes market growth. It’s important to note that with respect to MDT’s reinvestment in theDiabetes business over the past 3-4 years, investors and general observers of the Diabetesmarket might say “What took the company so long?” However, as mgmt pointed out in ourmeetings and discussions, it took a significant level of commitment for mgmt to allocatesubstantial incremental R&D investment to a challenged slower-growing, lower-marginbusiness like Diabetes, while balancing (and possibly foregoing) investment opportunities inother higher margin businesses. In the end, we view the commitment and balance by thecompany as successful, both in terms of setting Diabetes on a course for growth and success onthe one hand, and positioning RemainCo with several well-funded innovative growth programson the other, including CAS, RDN and other important programs across cardio and neuromod.Key Growth Opportunities on Deck for Diabetes:Mgmt sees the insulin-intensive and Type 1segment as the company’s focus, driven by the company’s next-gen Simplera Sync sensor andthe partnership with ABT around its sensor platform. The company sees the pull-through of MDIpatients (multiple daily injections) currently using Libre sensors over to the MDT pumpplatform, and improving share of new pumpers as the company’s sensorofferingsmove morein-line with current generation CGM systems paired with other pumps. In addition to automatedinsulin (i.e. pump) opportunity, the company expects to begin to fully launch its InPen smartpensolution this year, paired with its recently approved Simplera Sync sensor. We expect to hearmore about the MDT Diabetes pipeline at ADA in mid-June in Chicago, including its pipeline ofnew pump form factors such as the 800-series MiniMed Flex (compact screenless pump on trackto be filed this fiscal year) and the MiniMed Fit (patch pump expected to be filedafterthe Flex).We are hosting an expert event at ADA on June 21 in Chicago – please let us know if you wouldbe interested in attending(Barclays ADA 2025 Diabetes Expert Happy Hour).Our Initial Analysis of the Diabetes Spin Puts Value Creation in the 10-20% Range, WithoutAssuming aLiftto the Multiple for RemainCo:Given mgmt’s plans to execute the separationvia IPO in ~12-18 months, we took an initial look at the potential returns of such a transactionfor the stock based on what we know so far. We should note that post-spin, these individualbusinesses will be positioned withdifferentgrowth and margin prospects which could positioneach to generate incremental returns of this range. First for the Diabetes business, assuming10% growth in F26, or $3 bil, roughly in-line with consensus and mgmt’s near-termexpectations, we use a price/sales multiple in the range of 4.5 – 6.5x, and get an equity value inthe $15-20 bil range. Our multiple range is based on a 5.1x average and 6.0x median P/S multiplefor Diabetes technology comps BBNX (not covered), DXCM, PODD, SENS (not covered) andTNDM. We note that our estimates for revenue growth may be conservative, as they include noincreased growth from the company’s upcoming new product launches. For RemainCo, we usethe company’s remaining F26 projected sales of $32 bil (Bloomberg consensus of $35 bil, lessthe Diabetes spin), and apply a 31% EBITDA margin (100 bps above consensus EBITDA margin of~30% for the total company, in-line with mgmt’s expectedliftdriven by spin). Assuming in ourinitial analysis that the spin were to happen today and therefore RemainCo were to trade atapproximately the same multiple as total MDT (currently at ~12.5x EBITDA), this would put theequity value of RemainCo at ~$100 – 110 bil (using an EV/EBITDA multiple of 12-13x). Puttingthese two figures together, we get a total combined SOP equity value o