铜箔将受益于AI HVLP需求激增

Equity ResearchJune 15, 2026 China (PRC) | Electronic Components Copper Foil to Ride on AI HVLP DemandSurge; Initiate on Defu/TGCF We forecast copper foil (key material for PCB/CCL) TAM will expandby ~15% CAGR to US$55bn by 2030, driven by 30-40% CAGR in high-end product - HVLP shipment for AI infra buildout. Spec upgrades fromHVLP1/2/3 to HVLP4 should drive higher copper foil value. Tight supplyshould create opportunities for Chinese vendors of high-end copper foil.Initiate at BUY on Defu/TGCF as domestic leading high-end copper foilplayers with 37%/27% potential PT upside. Copper foil to move in step with AI PCB/CCL.Echoing our previous initiation on PCB (Link),we forecast ~60% CAGR for AI PCB TAM in 2025-30E driven by sharp rise in AI-related capex.This trend also brings structural changes to electrolytic copper foil as one of the key upstreammaterials for PCB/CCL. We forecast global copper foil TAM will grow from Rmb192bn in2025 to Rmb371bn (~US$55bn) in 2030. HVLP (hyper very low profile) is a critical, but moreexpensive high-speed product for AI infra with higher technical barriers vs traditional copperfoil. We expect market demand for HVLP to grow from ~1.3kt/mo in 2025 to >6kt/mo in 2030or a 30-40% CAGR, becoming a key driver for overall copper foil TAM's growth. Spec upgrade to boost ASP.Major AI players (NVIDIA/Google/Amazon) are expected toupgrade their copper foil spec from HVLP1/2/3 to HVLP4 in their new AI servers in 2H26,creating significant demand for the latter. The 2025-30 HVLP volume CAGR outlook of15%-20% at Mitsui Kinzoku, the world's largest HVLP vendor, means an undersupplied marketin our view, which could crreate space for other competent players to gain share. We estimateHVLP4's processing fee per ton could reach >10x that of traditional HTE. Given ongoingdemand shift towards higher-spec products, we believe the copper foil industry's ASP willcontinue to rise. Chinese vendors are gaining traction in AI copper foil.As the surge in AI capex has createdan industry shortage, we believe Chinese players' ability/willingness to rapidly expand capacitywill become a key advantage, allowing them to gain more traction in high-end copper foil. Weanticipate a notable supply gap in the next 1-2 years if we count only non-China capacity. Butby including the capacity of TGCF/Defu as emerging suppliers of high-speed copper foils, theglobal HVLP capacity will likely rise from ~2kt/mo in 2025 to >5kt/mo in 2027 (or 3.5-4.0kt/mo of HVLP4 equivalent capacity), roughly matching 2027 demand, subject to each player'scapacity/yield rate ramp progress. This implies Chinese vendors' global market share couldpotentially rise from <10% in 2025 to >30% in the next 2-3 years. Initiate on Defu/TGCF at BUY; Defu our top pick.We initiate on Defu/TGCF. Both are leadingChinese players in AI copper foil on customer verification and shipment volume. TGCF is nowleading in HVLP (already passed HVLP4's qualification) with high-end products contributingmost of 2025 profit, thus the market sees it as a direct AI beneficiary. For Defu, aside from high-speed copper foil capabilities, it has an active capacity expansion plan (another 50kt capacityin 2027-28 focusing on high-end), potentially bringing greater long-term upside, and hence werank Defu above TGCF. Both are under-researched with very limited sellside coverage. Despitethe rise in share prices over the past months, we think there are potential positive factorsnot fully priced in yet for both companies, such as a further price hike on copper foil drivenby industry-wide supply tightness. We forecast NP CAGRs of 169%/100% in 2026-28E and75%/58% in 2027-29E for Defu/TGCF. Our DCF-based PTs for Defu/TGCF imply 2027E P/E of56x/59x, 2028E P/E of 26x/35x, and 2028E PEG of 0.7x/0.8x, suggesting potential upside of37%/27%. Jacky He * | Equity Analyst +852 3743 8084 | jacky.he@jefferies.com Edison Lee, CFA * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8009 | edison.lee@jefferies.com Carlos Furuya ^ | Equity Analyst+81 3 6830 3618 | cfuruya@jefferies.com Nick Cheng * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8750 | nick.cheng@jefferies.com Matt Ma * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1109 | matt.ma@jefferies.com Annie Ping, CFA, FRM * | Equity Associate+852 3767 1273 | annie.ping@jefferies.com Summary of Changes Table of Contents Glossary of Terms Executive Summary Global copper foil TAM to expand by ~15% CAGR to 2030E; AI high-speed products as key boosters In our previous deep dive report on the PCB industry (Link), we forecast ~15% CAGR in 2025-30for the global TAM of PCB mainly driven by ~60% CAGR of AI PCB TAM, as AI infrastructuregrowth is likely to continue to be supported by tech giants' rising capex plans. We believe thistrend has also brought structural changes to electrolytic copper foil, which acts is one of the keyupstream materials for PCB/CCL to be adopted on server, switch, optical transceiver etc. In additionto PCB, copper foil is also widely adopted in lithium battery, and we observe the