需求弹性和约束-幻灯片

Andrew Bruceandrew.bruce@scottishfuturestrust.org.uk Simon Gillsimon@energylandscape.co.uk Objectives Constraints are substantial, usually managed by curtailing wind and turning up unabated gas and costs arerising. How do we do more and derive more value from using demand and clean flexibility to manageconstraints? Who can provide support Demand creationClean flexibility Investment and operational support levers What might we be able toachieve? Example: house in fuel poverty Scotland, 2024:33% of households (around 732,000) were in fuel poverty, with 14%(around 357,000) in extreme fuel poverty. More than 50% of households with electric heatingare in fuel poverty More than 68% of consumersreported rationing their energy use due to financialconcerns Example: industrial fuel switching for heat Illustrative example:small distillery with 4.3 GWh heat demand per year, met mainlyby gas boilers with e-boiler backup The target model Managing both sides of a constraint The target model can create a 24/7/365 framework across GB for managing alternatives to gas turn-up andrenewable curtailment. Recommendations Working group Current markets are not working for clean flex or Wind curtailed 59% of the time in 2025 > 90% of actions in the LCM are wind curtailment The Opportunity What needs to happen? ●Market reform→ 24/7 day ahead + Intraday regional clean flex markets to replace adhoc, underutilised and fragmented markets●Use clean flex firstbefore curtailing wind in the north and turning up gas in thesouth○There is a role for locational demand turn up and demand turn down from Better Integrationof Renewables Reduction in Direct SocialImpact Use the wind to do somethingextra-supports growth and 33% of Scottish households infuel poverty could benefit Reduces bills for everyone AboutFlexitricity •First open-market flexibility provider in GB, •24/7 Trading and Operations Control Room in •1.3GW+ Virtual Power Plant •Merchant energy investors•Local Authorities•Industrial and commercial •Operating across all revenue streams •Capacity Market•Balancing Mechanism•Reserve and response Getting dispatch right •Self dispatch in wholesale markets•We don’t have a zonal market•Network charges don’t follow the weather•Markets follow national need but create local •NESO dispatch •Balancing Mechanism, reserve services•The BM understands location (sort of)•Monopsony, manual processes•Operational plans treat demand as input•Weak investment signal, despite cost driver •What we’re missing: cheap, local green energy •Decarbonising heat•Decarbonising transport•Flexible water pumping•Flexible cold storage•Green hydrogen•New industry A blurred view… Electrifying demand to put renewables to work Annandale Distillery has installed an Exergy3 thermal heatstore capable of producing "zero carbon" whisky. •2MW grid connection•24/7 operation to charge at night•36MWh unit to power a 4MW boiler providing air to steam Flexitricity is providingdemand turn down (i.e. run on storedheat instead of drawing from the grid) and demand turn up(i.e. use electricity to charge boiler)in the Wholesale EnergyMarket and Local Constraints Market (provide an alternative toswitching off Scottish wind in the Balancing Mechanism) toreduce consumer bills and create zero carbon whisky. Electrifying the Scottish whisky industry would create demandequivalent to 38% of curtailed Scottish wind in 2024. Why do we needgrid-scale batterystoragein Scotland? Adding a 100 MW / 200 MWh battery with appropriate dispatch arrangements,could have reduced curtailment by 24 GWh and saved £1.7 million. Recommendations for UK government:Set a clear objective for constraintmanagement and adopt a target model: establish a framework that goes 1)Day-ahead constraint markets:with the ability to schedule flexibility 24/7 ona locational basis, in all areas of GB, whilst optimising over multiplesettlement periods at once. This will form the basis of operational dispatch 2)Improved Balancing Mechanism: •Reducing locational skip rates through improved methodologies•Integrating enhanced asset-level data (e.g. battery state of charge) intoconstraint management as well as energy balancing•Developing more integrated control room processes for system-wide and 3)Intertrip:pre-arranged actions (e.g. rapid generation or demanddisconnection) triggered automatically following a fault, enabling higher pre 4)Boundary flow smoothing:use of fast-acting flexibility (e.g. batteries orresponsive demand) to reduce short-term variability in boundary flows, Large E-Heat & Thermal StorageDispatched in Heat Networks Electrification of heat is a coreelement of the net zero pathway. •Heat networks can embed local flexibility throughthe use of thermal storage–creating a rapid and •Storing large volumes of energy as hot water ischeap and effective and can provide short (daily)and long duration (interseasonal) storage. •Electrification of heat generation can include heatpu