Fiserv：与首席执行官Mike Lyons炉边谈话的最佳想法幻灯片和要点

Harshita Rawat, CFA+1 917 344 8485harshita.rawat@bernsteinsg.com Payments, Processors & IT Services Fiserv Wenhuan Chang+1 917 344 8546wenhuan.chang@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Simran Ratani+1 917 344 8329simran.ratani@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Fiserv: Best Ideas Slide Deck and Takeaways from Fireside Chatwith CEO Mike Lyons We hosted Fiserv CEO, Mike Lyons, at our Strategic Decisions Conference last week. Ourconversation included several topics including Mike’s reflections on his first 100 days atthe company, the much-debated Clover volume dynamics and TAM, health of the merchantbusiness ex-Clover, Mike’s insights around the financial solutions segment (having worked at abank before), Cash Flow Central, Finxact, Issuer Business and Mike’s long-term outlook for thebusiness. This note contains our takeaways from the conversation, and also the slide deck fromour best ideas presentation. Investment Implications FI is a quality compounder in a still secularly growing and scale-driven payments marketand we like Fiserv as a disruption and regulation agnostic name to play growth in payments.Clover isstillFiserv’s crown jewel and management team has conviction that normalized LDDvolume growth sustains this year (a key catalyst to watch is 2H Clover volume growth). Plentyof opportunity exists to continue to grow Clover especially internationally and in value-addedservices. Strong velocity of new product launches, partnerships, wins and Fiserv’s ability ofbring together assets from across its platform demonstrate differentiation in a competitivemarket. FI is a great company in a temporarily tainted neighborhood; certain peers have beenpoor allocators of capital depressing sector multiples. We continue to see potential for multiple expansion to 20s and upside through compoundingteens EPS growth at an attractive valuation of 14x 2026 PE. Our SOTP analysis indicates30%+ potential upside from current price if we value Clover at 25x PE (assuming similarmargins as merchant), merchant ex-Clover at 10x (premium to GPN due to FI’s betterearnings quality, capital allocation and balance sheet), and Financial solutions at 20x (marketmultiple; premium to FIS’ clean multiple of 16-17x given our view that FI Financial solutions isa better business) DETAILS 1. TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR FIRESIDE CHAT AND CONVERSATION WITH CEO MIKE LYONS MIKE’S FIRST 100 DAYS •Mike highlighted that his first 100 days as CEO-elect (and now CEO) have been busy with him meeting 1000+ clients, lots ofemployees and systematically re-underwriting all of Fiserv’s businesses. He proactively addressed the share performanceacknowledging the need for better communication about the company's growth drivers and is committed to addressing this.Mike also reiterated FI’s targetsincluding 15% to 17% EPS growth this year and the $3.5 billion Clover guide. •Guy Chiarello is now the company’s Vice Chairman, and Takis Georgakopoulos (who we believe Fiserv hired last year forsuccession planning) is now the COO (helps with retention in our view). •Mike noted hisadmiration for the construct of Fiserv (having merchants and FIs under the same roof),Fiserv’s strongcustomer relationships and a recurring revenue model. Fiserv holds privileged market positions in several sectors (merchantacquiring, SMB point-of-sale, bank core processing, online/mobile banking), and has significant potential for internationalexpansion. With a talented workforce of 13,000 software engineers, there are numerous opportunities for growth identifiedin numerous client meetings, with Fiserv unique positioned to expand its total addressable market without significant costs •Mike reiterated that FI’s strategy remains unchangedand is based on a time-tested approach: win clients, grow withthem by providing value-added products and services, and meet their needs. The focus is on leveraging scaled operatingplatforms to generate substantial free cash flow, which is then reinvested to expand the total addressable market (TAM)and create a virtuous cycle of growth. The emphasis is on execution rather than rethinking the strategy. Operationally,thereis more focus on a client-first mindset, understanding customer strategies, and collaborating across business units todeliver value-added solutions efficiently, aiming to increase average revenue per client (ARPU) sustainably, supporting bothmerchant sales and competitive positioning in banking technology. CLOVER NORMALIZED GROWTH OF LDD •Mike noted that excluding gateway conversions, Clover growth has been in the consistent low-double-digitrange for the last few quarters, and all key performance indicators remain stable, with no signs of market saturation orcompetitive changes. The demand for Clover from distribution partners, banks, and ISOs is increasing, and the Fiserv aims todeliver more value on the Clover platform.The Q1 volume growth aligns with the target of reaching $3.5 billion. •To drive future growth, Mike highlighted five key areas:h