中国AI：模型智能与代币价格差距较美国扩大

China (PRC) | Technology China AI: Model Intelligence and Token PriceGap vs US Widening Anthropic's Fable/Mythos 5 now ranks No. 1 in model intelligence globally,widening the US-China gap from 8% to 13%. The gap could widen more dueto compute differences. Fable/Mythos 5 have "anti-distillation" features andnow under US export control, which could make it harder for open-source(China) models to catch up. Anthropic has doubled its API price, while Chinapricing continues to fall, not healthy given skyrocketing hardware costs(compute shortage). US models are improving at a faster pace likely due to compute advantage, but anti-distillation and US export control are new negatives for China AI.Anthropic released itsFable 5 and Mythos 5 models on June 9 (same model but with diff emphasis on capabilities- Mythos focused on cybersecurity - we refer to both as Fable 5). Fable 5's intelligence scoreis 6% higher than Opus 4.8 (Artificial Analysis), and now ranks No. 1 globally. Fable 5 hasalso widened the intelligence gap between US and China AI models from 8% in May to 13%.We believe this is partly driven by US AI labs' rich access to more powerful AI chips (NVDABlackwell series). Although some Chinese AI models are also trained overseas with NVDAchips, we believe Chinese companies would unlikely be able to access as many advanced USAI chips as their US peers. As NVDA will start shipping the next-gen chip of Rubin in 2H26,the compute gap between the US and China could widen further, as may the intelligence gapbetween US and Chinese AI models. But even so, we see current Chinese AI models beinggood enough to commercialize applications. The key investment considerations in China AIis the commercialization and moneitization pace. For example, we highlighted last week (hereand here) Tencent's launch of its A2A services on its WeChat platform is a strong sign ofaccelerating 2C AI monetization. Open-source models (mostly Chinese) may find it harder to improve given new anti-distillation features and US export control.More importantly, Anthropic introduced anti-distillation features on Fable 5. If Fable 5 detects suspicious distillation activities, it woulddowngrade the model to Opus 4.8 and notify users. While this seems to be targeting Chinese AIdevelopment, we believe this would set back open source progress if all closed-source modeldevelopers follow suit. Moreover, the US has imposed emergency export control on Fable5, barring foreigners from using them (including foreign employees of US companies), givenloopholes in the cybersecurity safeguards. However, since Anthropic has no tools to limit theuse to US nationals only (ie, ID checks?), it has suspended both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 globallyuntil it could come up with a way to enforce that export control. .Source: Artificial Analysis, Jefferies For China AI, falling API pricing against skyrocketing hardware costs is a bigger worry thanwhether it could narrow the intelligence gap vs the US.In our view, China AI is facing twosignificant challenges: 1) compute shortage for inference, and 2) competition that drives downAPI pricing while hardware costs are skyrocketing, such as memory. Anthropic has doubledits API pricing on Fable 5 (vs Opus 4.8). From Mar to Jun, avg US API pricing has risen 89%,partly driven by higher hardware costs. However, Chinese API pricing has remained flat. JuneAPI pricing in China has fallen 2% MoM, driven by 33% price cut at MiniMax. As hardware costscontinue to rise driven by sharply higher memory costs and likely higher costs for make AIchips in China by using Huawei's "Logic Folding" tech, we need to see higher API pricing butalso continued skyrocketing in token consumption to support acceptable ROI on AI. Therefore,price competition among AI labs in China is now our biggest concern. Edison Lee, CFA * | Equity Analyst852 3743 8009 | edison.lee@jefferies.com Matt Ma * | Equity Analyst852 3767 1109 | matt.ma@jefferies.com Annie Ping, CFA, FRM * | Equity Associate+852 3767 1273 | annie.ping@jefferies.com Nick Cheng * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8750 | nick.cheng@jefferies.com Jacky He * | Equity Analyst+852 3743 8084 | jacky.he@jefferies.com Company Valuation/Risks For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300. Analyst Certification: I, Edison Lee, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report. I, Matt Ma, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is