油脂月报

金融研究院 报告日期2026年6月12日 棕榈油方面，产地处于增产季，出口疲弱，库存累积，国内棕榈油库存处于高位，供应压力增加，淡季需求偏弱。印尼7月B50政策支撑棕榈油需求；厄尔尼诺天气预期增加，支撑棕榈油远期价格。关注天气情况和印尼政策变化。豆油方面，南美大豆丰产压制价格，美国生柴需求增加支撑美豆油。巴西大豆集中到港，国内大豆供应较宽松，豆油产量逐渐增加，库存累积，淡季需求偏弱。菜油方面，受天气影响菜籽价格上行，但随着天气好转，对菜籽减产情绪下降，国内菜籽到港增加，菜籽供应转向宽松，菜油库存累积但同比仍处于低位，需求端处于淡季。美伊冲突仍有反复，原油价格仍处于高位，对油脂价格仍有扰动。油脂承压，高位震荡。 Tel：025-68908477Email:chenchunlei@ftol.com.cnyiwenduan@ftol.com.cn 陈春雷从业资格号:F3032143投资咨询证号：Z0014352 段怡雯从业资格证：F03131526 章节目录 一、行情回顾......................................................................................................................................3二、棕榈油..........................................................................................................................................6三、豆油............................................................................................................................................10四、菜油............................................................................................................................................12五、总结与展望................................................................................................................................14 图目录 图1油脂主力合约5月走势....................................................................................................3图2油脂现货价格走势............................................................................................................4图3豆油基差............................................................................................................................5图4棕榈油基差........................................................................................................................5图5菜油基差............................................................................................................................5图6豆棕现货价差....................................................................................................................5图7马来棕榈油产量...............................................................................................................6图8马来棕榈消费....................................................................................................................6图9马来棕榈油出口................................................................................................................7图10马来棕榈油库存..............................................................................................................7图11东南亚未来一周降水预测...............................................................................................8图12东南亚过去30天累计降水量.......................................................................................8图13马来CPO价格...................................................................................................................8图14印尼月度棕榈油产量.......................................................................................................9图15印尼月度棕榈油出口.......................................................................................................9图16印尼月度棕榈油消费.......................................................................................................9图17印尼月度棕榈油库存.......................................................................................................9图18印度月度棕榈油进口量.................................................................................................10图19印度月度豆油进口量.....................................................................................................10图20国内棕榈油库存.............................................................................................................10图21国内棕榈油成交量.........................................................................................................10图22油厂开机率.....................................................................................................................12图23豆油周度产量.................................................................................................................12图2490家样本企业豆油库存...............................................................................................12图25豆油成交量.....................................................................................................................12图26菜籽月度进口量.............................................................................................................13图27油厂菜籽库存.................................................................................................................13图28菜油产量.........................................................................................................................13图29菜油库存.........................................................................................................................13图30ICE菜籽主力合约...........................................................................................................14 一、行情回顾 5月，油脂波动加大，棕榈油和菜油震荡偏弱后反弹，豆油震荡偏弱。棕榈油减幅2.75%，豆油降幅1.28%，菜油降幅0.29%。棕榈油方面，5月马来棕榈油产量预估环比下降，出口疲弱，库存累积。厄尔尼诺天气预期引发东南亚干旱，棕榈油有减产预期；马来和印尼生柴政策支撑棕榈油需求，远月棕榈油价格受到支撑。印尼将加强对棕榈油出口管制，引发市场对供应的担忧。国内库存累积至高位，库存压力增加。豆油方面，国内大豆进口增加，供应转向