安大略省各市的关税影响模型（英）

REPORT FORASSOCIATION OF ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economicswas founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s businesscollege to provide economic forecasting and modelling toUK companies and financial institutionsexpanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in New York, London,Sydney,Frankfurt, andSingapore, OxfordEconomics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai,Dublin,Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Tokyo, and Toronto.We employ 450 staff, including more than300professional economists, industry experts, and business Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers andthought leaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over2,000 international organisations, 1 May2025 All data shown in tables and chartsareOxford Economicsown data, except where otherwise statedand cited in footnotes, andarecopyright ©Oxford Economics. The modelling and results presented here arebasedoninformation provided by third parties, uponwhich Oxford Economicshas relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith.Any To discuss the report further please contact: Kristian Kolding:kkolding@oxfordeconomics.com Chad Gardner:cgardner@oxfordeconomics.com TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction..........................................................................................................................................7 2. US-Canada Trade and Tariffs.....................................................................................................8 2.1 US-Canada Trade.........................................................................................................82.2 US-Ontario Trade..........................................................................................................92.3 US Tariffs and Canadian Retalitory Tariffs......................................................10 3. Ontario Municipalities...................................................................................................................12 3.1 Overview.........................................................................................................................123.2 Municipality Capital Expenditure..........................................................................14 4. Ontario Construction Market.....................................................................................................16 4.1 Demand..........................................................................................................................174.2 Supply..............................................................................................................................17 5. Tariff Impacts...................................................................................................................................20 5.1 Municipality Exposure to US Tariffs....................................................................205.2 Tariff Impact on Municipality Capital Expenditure........................................21 6. Broader Impacts and Areas for Further Research...........................................................26 6.1 Non-Tariff Related Construction Cost Escalation.........................................266.2 Exchange Rate............................................................................................................276.3 Changes in Domestic Prices..................................................................................276.4 Import Substitution.....................................................................................................276.5 Inventory levels............................................................................................................28 TABLE OFFIGURES Figure 1: Estimated tariff impact by asset type...............................................................................................................4Figure 2: Estimated tariff impact by material type..........................................................................................................5Figure 3: Ontario’s Trade with the US by Product Grouping, FY2023-24............................................................9Figure 4: Summary of current and proposed Canada and US tariffs...................................................................10Figure 5: Example of single-tier, upper tier, and lower tier municipalities..........................................................13Figure 6: Funding sources of municipality capital expenditure...............................................................................13Figure 7: CAPEX function and asset type mapping....................................................................................................15Figure 8: Labour, materials and fuel inputs