安大略省各市的关税影响模型（英）

REPORT FORASSOCIATION OFMUNICIPALITIES OF ONTARIO FINALREPORT ABOUT OXFORD ECONOMICS Oxford Economicswas founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s businesscollege to provide economic forecasting and modelling toUK companies and financial institutionsexpanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent globaladvisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools onmore than200 countries,100industries,and8,000 citiesand regions. Our best-in-classglobal economic and industry modelsand analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends andassess theireconomic, social and business impact. Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in New York, London,Sydney,Frankfurt, andSingapore, OxfordEconomics has offices across the globe in Belfast, Boston, Cape Town, Chicago, Dubai,Dublin,Hong Kong, Los Angeles, Mexico City, Milan, Paris, Philadelphia, Stockholm, Tokyo, and Toronto.We employ 450 staff, including more than300professional economists, industry experts, and businesseditors—one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our globalteamis highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities fromeconometric modelling, scenario framing, and economic impact analysis to market surveys, case studies,expert panels, and web analytics. Oxford Economics is a key adviser to corporate, financial and government decision-makers andthought leaders. Our worldwide client base now comprises over2,000 international organisations,including leading multinational companies and financial institutions; key government bodies and tradeassociations; and top universities, consultancies, and think tanks. 1 May2025 All data shown in tables and chartsareOxford Economicsown data, except where otherwise statedand cited in footnotes, andarecopyright ©Oxford Economics. The modelling and results presented here arebasedoninformation provided by third parties, uponwhich Oxford Economicshas relied in producing its report and forecasts in good faith.Anysubsequent revision or update of those data will affect the assessments and projections shown. To discuss the report further please contact: Kristian Kolding:kkolding@oxfordeconomics.com Chad Gardner:cgardner@oxfordeconomics.com TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Introduction..........................................................................................................................................72. US-Canada Trade and Tariffs.....................................................................................................82.1 US-Canada Trade.........................................................................................................82.2 US-Ontario Trade..........................................................................................................92.3 US Tariffs and Canadian Retalitory Tariffs......................................................103. Ontario Municipalities...................................................................................................................123.1 Overview.........................................................................................................................123.2 Municipality Capital Expenditure..........................................................................144. Ontario Construction Market.....................................................................................................164.1 Demand..........................................................................................................................174.2 Supply..............................................................................................................................175. Tariff Impacts...................................................................................................................................205.1 Municipality Exposure to US Tariffs....................................................................205.2 Tariff Impact on Municipality Capital Expenditure........................................215.3 Tariff Impact by Asset Type...................................................................................236. Broader Impacts and Areas for Further Research...........................................................266.1 Non-Tariff Related Construction Cost Escalation.........................................266.2 Exchange Rate............................................................................................................276.3 Changes in Domestic Prices..................................................................................276.4 Import Substitution.....................................................................................................276.5 Inventory levels............................................................................................................28 TABLE OFF