美国关税对柬埔寨的经济影响（英）

Economic Impacts ofthe United States Tariff on Cambodia KEY POINTS •The United States (US)imposed a 19% tariffon Cambodian importsstarting on 7 August.This brief discusses the Pirom KhievResearch FellowCambodia Development Milan ThomasCountry EconomistAsian Development Bank Given the volatile path ofUS trade policy in 2025, twoother plausible tariff rates onCambodia are considered:10% (low, as was imposedstarting 2 April) and 36%(high, as was announced INTRODUCTION Due to the April 2025 announcement of new, country-specific United States (US)import tariffs, bilateral trade relationships with the US have taken center stage indeveloping countries, especially small, export-oriented economies like Cambodia.Exports to the US are about 33% of total Cambodian exports and worth 25% ofgross domestic product (GDP) in a typical year (Figure 1). Cambodia imports heavilythe raw materials and energy required to produce its exports, so a relatively lowshare of exports are value-added to the Cambodian economy. While there is no Based on a computablegeneral equilibrium model,the current tariff rate of 19%will have a negligible impacton key economic variables.However, the low tariff If other exporting sectors have a similar value-added ratio, this implies that 6% ofCambodian GDP could be at risk due to the US tariff. This may be considered the upperlimit of the predicted impact of the high US tariff (36%) on Cambodia’s economy, as it •The analysis providesreassuring evidence ofthe 19% tariff’s innocuity,while noting the threat toemployment and povertyreduction if the US relativetariff on Cambodia were toshift to the high level (either ISBN 978-92-9277-477-6 (print)ISBN 978-92-9277-478-3 (PDF)ISSN 2071-7202 (print)ISSN 2218-2675 (PDF)Publication Stock No. BRF250433 PREVIOUS ECONOMETRIC MODELING The true impact of a 36% tariff would however likely be evenlower due to product and market substitution. Several analyseshave tried to capture the potential impact of this tariff, whileaccounting for the economic reorganization that would take place.Two unpublished independent analyses based on historical data(one using the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model2and Even if the high tariff were imposed, complete elimination of exportsto the US is implausible. Based on industry experience and intuition,the Textile, Apparel, Footwear, and Travel Goods Association inCambodia estimates that 15%–30% of their members’ exports tothe US would be eliminated by a tariff of 36%. Since exports to Economic Impacts of the United States Tariff on Cambodia COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM together face an unweighted average tariff of around 24% as ofAugust 2025, meaning that the low Cambodia tariff scenariocorresponds to a differential of –14 percentage points, the mediumscenario corresponds to a differential of –5 percentage points,and the high scenario corresponds to a scenario of +12 percentage The 31 July 2025 announcement of a 19% tariff on Cambodianexports to the US calls for new, comprehensive modeling thatrecognizes the possibility of additional sudden shifts in the USglobal tariff schedule. Computable general equilibrium (CGE)models are commonly used and appropriate for this purpose CGE models simulating US tariffs announced as of mid-2025typically show a decline in global GDP of less than 1%, with the USbearing the highest cost. However, not all models include Cambodiaas a singular economy, but rather part of a regional aggregate.Development partners of the Government of Cambodia haveconducted CGE modeling expressly for Cambodia, with findings A detailed modeling for Cambodia was conducted by VictoriaUniversity’s Centre of Policy Studies (CoPS) and the CambodiaResident Mission of the Asian Development Bank (ADB)(Figure 3). Simulations vary the tariff rate on Cambodia at 10%, Cambodia’s tariff relative to its key competitors—Bangladesh,People’s Republic of China, India, and Viet Nam—determines the with GDP rising by almost 1 percentage point. In the medium tariffscenario (the active one as of August 2025), the net effect ofthe tariff is close to zero, as the dampening effect of tariffs on USdemand is offset by the favorability of Cambodia’s tariff relative to itskey competitors. In the high tariff scenario, Cambodian GDP falls byalmost 1 percentage point as GFT and electronics competitiveness To project the short-term effects of the 36% tariff on Cambodianemployment and poverty, the most recent available source ofhousehold data is used, the Cambodia Socioeconomic Surveyof 2023.6The forecast GDP shock would not affect allhouseholds equally. Poverty would rise disproportionatelyif households living above but close to the poverty line fall IMPLICATIONS OF THE HIGH TARIFF (i)Consumption-based approach. First, we apply a 2%reduction to all household consumption (as estimatedby the CoPS model under the high tariff scenario) andcalculate the number of households that newly fallbelow the national poverty line. This simple esti