关税冲击：对私人市场影响的看法（英）

Tariff Shock: Perspectiveson Private Market Impacts Institutional Research Group Kenny TangSenior Director,US Credit Researchkenny.tang@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. Taron WadeDirector, EMEA Credit Researchtaron.wade@pitchbook.com Kyle Stanford, CAIADirector, VC Researchkyle.stanford@pitchbook.com Introduction The US Supreme Court’s decision to strike down the Trump administration’s broadtariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, followed by theimmediate reintroduction of 15% global tariffs under a new authority, has jolted publicmarkets, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 800 points on February23. While the new tariffs can remain in place for 150 days without congressional action,investors now face not only the current bout of tariff-induced volatility but also a hardpolicy decision point in five months that could materially alter the outlook. James UlanDirector, Industry &Technology Researchjames.ulan@pitchbook.com Nalin Patel Director, EMEA PrivateCapital Researchnalin.patel@pitchbook.com Private markets may appear insulated from such rapid shifts because they areilliquid and not marked to market daily, but tariff-driven cost pressures, supply chaindisruptions, and changing sentiment can still significantly affect strategies and returns.Coming on top of a prolonged period of illiquidity, higher-for-longer interest rates, andevolving investor behavior, this new uncertainty risks exposing structural weaknessesacross US private markets; in the following sections, our analysts outline keyimplications and scenarios for credit, PE, VC, mature industries, emerging technologies,and European private markets. Steven Buibish, CFADirector, US PE Researchsteven.buibish@pitchbook.com pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on February 23, 2026 Key points 2•Tariff-related policy uncertainty, combined with a software-led sell-off, ispressuring leveraged loan markets, constraining new issuance, widening yields,and pushing secondary prices toward multiyear lows. •For US PE, the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling and the rapid reimposition of dutieshave broken a brief window of stability, clouding 2026 deployment and exitplans, complicating potential refunds of roughly $170 billion to $200 billion, andreintroducing risk into underwriting and timing decisions. •Software and other previously “reliable” PE sectors are now under pressure fromboth tariff uncertainty and AI-related disruption, which may push sponsors intoa wait-and-see posture despite still-resilient macroeconomic fundamentalsand earnings. •In VC, AI continues to dominate US dealmaking and largely masks tariff effects; thebigger tariff-linked risks are to liquidity and fundraising, with IPO windows likely toremain narrow, more activity shifting to secondaries, and capital concentrating inlarge, established managers. •For mature industries, a 10% to 15% global tariff is seen as manageable, but furthervolatility or escalation would likely delay major investment and M&A. Any eventualtariff refunds and/or lapse of certain duties could create meaningful cash flow andmacro tailwinds. •In Europe, tariffs are amplifying existing stresses in PE and credit—particularly forexport-heavy and industrial portfolios—likely steering capital toward domesticallyfocused, policy-supported sectors (such as defense, energy, infrastructure, and tech)and increasing valuation dislocation, exit delays, and scrutiny of cross-border deals. Credit In our three-part Tariff Sensitivity by Industry series published in Q2 and Q3 2025,LCD identified tariff-sensitive industries across thebroadly syndicated loan(BSL),private credit, andhigh-yieldmarkets, as well as sectors positioned to benefit fromthe administration’s tariffs. With that said, the ongoing uncertainty around US tariffpolicy is weighing on the broader transaction ecosystem that underpins M&A, primaryloan issuance, refinancings, and sponsor exits. This added layer of risk exacerbatesdisruption already triggered by the software sector sell-off, which has pushed the BSLmarket into negative territory YTD. Through February 20, the Morningstar LSTA USLeveraged Loan Index declined 0.4%, even as base rates remained historically elevated. Weakness in software and broader risk-off sentiment had already materiallyconstrained new-issue BSL activity in February. In the US, LCD tracked just $7.9 billionof new institutional loan issuance through February 23, excluding refinancings andrepricing amendments. Adjusting for typical seasonal slowdowns in August andDecember, February is on pace to rank as the second-slowest month since June 2023—surpassed only by the “Liberation Day”-driven contraction in April 2025 ($6.2 billion).Meanwhile, new-issue yields have widened by approximately 25 basis points month todate, based on the limited cohort