公共支出，私人收益：外生财政政策冲击的性别影响（英）

THE GENDERED IMPACT OF EXOGENOUSFISCAL POLICY SHOCKS João Jalles, John Beirne, Donghyun Park, and Gazi Salah Uddin ADB ECONOMICSWORKING PAPER SERIES ADB Economics Working Paper Series Public Spending, Private Gains: The Gendered Impactof Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks João Jalles, John Beirne, Donghyun Park,and Gazi Salah Uddin João Jalles (joaojalles@gmail.com) is a senior associateprofessor of economics at the Lisbon School ofEconomics and Management (ISEG), University ofLisbon. John Beirne (jbeirne@adb.org) is a principaleconomist and Donghyun Park (dpark@adb.org)is an economic advisor at the Economic Researchand Development Impact Department,Asian Development Bank. Gazi Salah Uddin(gazi.salah.uddin@liu.se) is a professor of financialeconomics at Linköping University, Sweden andNorwegian University of Life Sciences. No. 816 | November 2025 TheADB Economics Working Paper Seriespresents research in progress to elicit commentsand encourage debate on development issuesin Asia and the Pacific. The views expressedare those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views and policies of ADB orits Board of Governors or the governmentsthey represent. Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) © 2025 Asian Development Bank6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, PhilippinesTel +63 2 8632 4444; Fax +63 2 8636 2444www.adb.org Some rights reserved. Published in 2025. ISSN 2313-6537 (print), 2313-6545 (PDF)Publication Stock No. WPS250439-2DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS250439-2 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policiesof the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for anyconsequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that theyare endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, ADB does notintend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. This publication is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. By using the content of this publication, you agree to be boundby the terms of this license. For attribution, translations, adaptations, and permissions, please read the provisionsand terms of use at https://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. This CC license does not apply to non-ADB copyright materials in this publication. If the material is attributedto another source, please contact the copyright owner or publisher of that source for permission to reproduce it.ADB cannot be held liable for any claims that arise as a result of your use of the material. Please contact pubsmarketing@adb.org if you have questions or comments with respect to content, or if you wishto obtain copyright permission for your intended use that does not fall within these terms, or for permission to usethe ADB logo. ABSTRACT This paper examines the gender-specific effects of exogenous public spending shocks across aglobal sample using a novel identification strategy and local projections. We distinguish betweeninvestment and consumption shocks and further decompose spending by function: education,health, and social protection. Public investment shocks generally reduce female labor forceparticipation but increase wage shares and lower maternal mortality. Consumption shocks alsolower participation but raise service sector employment and tertiary enrolment in the short term.Functionally, education spending delays labor force entry but improves wages and enrolment;health spending boosts agricultural employment but may initially increase maternal mortality; andsocial protection stabilizes rural employment while reducing overall participation. Nonlinearanalysesreveal strong heterogeneity by income level,initial gender inequality,and laborinformality. For example, investment boosts female employment in poorer emerging markets anddeveloping economies but reinforces participation gaps in richer ones. These results highlight theneed for gender-responsive fiscal frameworks tailored to structural conditions, and show thatfiscal design—not just scale—shapes inclusive development outcomes. Keywords:fiscal shocks, gender disparities, government spending, labor force participation,public investment, public consumption, nonlinear effects JEL codes:C32, E62, H20, H50, J16, O15, F63 1.INTRODUCTION Fiscal policy plays a critical role in shaping economic and social outcomes, influencing notonly growth and inequality but also broader welfare. Yet its potential to reduce gender disparitiesremains underexplored in macroeconomic research. Promoting gend