日本半导体设备：在中国的份额或正扭转颓势

Japan Semi Equipment: Potentially reversing share loss in China? Japanese equipment makers have been losing share in China, not only to Chinesedomestic makers but to other overseas makers. Their market share among importsdropped from 26% in 2024 to 23% in 2025. Before that, their market share in Chinaamong imports peaked in 2021 at 30%. We believe that is one of the major concerns forinvestors, but the trend may reverse going onward. David Dai, CFA+852 2918 5704david.dai@bernsteinsg.com Qingyuan Lin, Ph.D.+852 2123 2654qingyuan.lin@bernsteinsg.com The share loss can be explained: FX was a big reason for the nominal share loss.TheJPY has depreciated 31.5% over the last 5 years, and Japanese WFE players tend to pricetheir products in JPY. Adjusting for which the market share would have been 31%/26%(instead of 26%/23%) respectively in 2024/25, vs. 2023 adjusted market share of 27%,or 2021 share of 28%.Investment timing was another major reason, causing Japanto lose share in 2025 after gaining share in 2024.We believe some of the customerswith historically higher Japanese presence such as CXMT not placing many orders in 2025may have also caused some optical market share loss. Averaging out market share in 2024and 25, the Japanese WFE companies’ FX adjusted market share in China among importedequipment would be 28.6%, which is on par with average market share in 21-23 of 28.1%.This also suggests that 2025 share loss is mainly due to timing for order rather thanstructural loss.There are also some specific reasons for each individual company.All 3 front end equipment companies (TEL/Screen/Kokusai) lost share in 2025, but fordifferent reasons. For Tokyo Electron, it was likely due to customer / process-step mix andtiming, as well as historically less aggressive pricing. For Screen, it was likely due to ordertiming and customers’ localization attempts, as cleaning is a segment where locals havebecome more credible, while for Kokusai it was likely mostly due to CXMT’s investmenttiming. Juho Hwang+852 2123 2632juho.hwang@bernsteinsg.com Francis Ma+852 2123 2626francis.ma@bernsteinsg.com Carmine Milano, CFA+44 20 7762 1857carmine.milano@bernsteinsg.com Jack Lin+852 2123 2683jack.lin@bernsteinsg.com We expect the Japanese equipment makers to reverse the share loss in China goingforward. The FX should no longer be a headwind, and because of yen depreciation, theJapanese equipment is of considerably good value which allows them to raise prices.This, coupled with normalization of investment pattern among the Chinese customers,should allow the Japanese equipment makers to gain market share in China. AlthoughJapan’s market share among import hasn’t necessarily been impressive YTD, we expectthem to regain share in going forward as Chinese customers seem to have been orderingincreasingly from Japan again, and we believe Japanese equipment makers have startedto raise prices more actively. Specifically,Tokyo Electron (OP)has been more vocal onpricing, especially in China where certain tools remain difficult to be replaced by locals.Customer mix normalizing should also help.Kokusai (OP)could see China memorycapacity expansion cycle to support demand, and we believe their core areas are not yetfully caught up by local competition.Screen (MP)expects orders from CXMT to come backafter 2 years of no orders, as well as a sizeable order from JHICC. We are positive on front end equipment companies — Tokyo Electron, Kokusai aswell as Screen especially after the recent commodity / materials rally. SPEs havebeen underperforming the commodity semi names (memory, analog, substrate, wafer, etc.)in the past 2-3 months. We expect the strength for SPE companies to recover as investorsrecognize the capex increase in the next few years, as well as their potential share gain inChina, and prefer TEL (OP) and Kokusai (OP). BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Tokyo Electron (TP=¥59,200) and Kokusai (TP=¥8,240.00 Outperform, and Screen (TP=¥12,600) Market-Perform. We rate ASML (PT=€1,700.00) Outperform. We rate Naura Outperform, with TP at CNY 680. DETAILS Japanese equipment makers, led by TEL, have been underperforming global peers in 2025 in growth and market share. Onebig reason for that is China, which represents c. 42% of global WFE as of 2025, where Japanese equipment makers have beenlosing share. In today’s report, we examine the cause of the share loss, and discuss the future market share trend in China. Japanese equipment makers have been losing share in China, not only to Chinese domestic makers but to otheroverseas makers. Their market share among imports dropped from 26% in 2024 to 23% in 2025. Before that, their marketshare in China among imports peaked in 2021 at 30%. However, we believe the trend may reverse going forward. Japanese makers have been losing share in 2025 not only to domestic competition but among global players as well.Alongside China WFE market growth, WFE imports to China has been on