欧洲的工资动态：驱动因素、制度放大器和政策溢出

Wage Dynamics inEurope: Drivers, Kareem Ismail, Ana Lariau, and Théodore Renault WP/26/120 2026JUN IMF Working PaperEuropean Department Wage Dynamics in Europe: Drivers, Institutional Amplifiers, and Policy Spillovers Prepared by Kareem Ismail, Ana Lariau, and Théodore Renault * Authorized for distribution by Romain Duval IMF Working Papersdescribe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicitcomments and to encourage debate.The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the ABSTRACT:This paper examines the drivers of wage growth in Europe and assesses whether the 2022–23inflation surge has altered wage-setting dynamics, using cross-country macro evidence for 26 Europeaneconomies, agreement-level collective bargaining data for Spain, and estimates of minimum and public sectorwage spillovers. We find that the slope of the wage Phillips curve has not materially changed since thepandemic—labor market slack continues exerting a restraining influence on wage growth. However, post-pandemic wage growth was higher than predicted by historical relationships, reflecting the outsized inflationshock and a higher sensitivity of wages to past inflation. Wage-setting is found to differ markedly acrossregions. In Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Economies (CESEE), wage formation remains morebackward-looking, with past inflation playing a dominant role, whereas in Advanced Economies (AEs) inflationexpectations are more important. In AEs, the recent wage response followed a sequential pattern: the wage RECOMMENDED CITATION:Ismail, Kareem, Ana Lariau, and Théodore Renault. 2026. "Wage Dynamics inEurope: Drivers, Institutional Amplifiers, and Policy Spillovers." IMF Working Paper No. 26/120. International WORKING PAPERS Wage Dynamics In Europe:Drivers, Institutional Amplifiers, Prepared by Kareem Ismail, Ana Lariau, and Théodore Renault Contents Glossary............................................................................................................................................................... 4 I. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 1.Empirical Framework .......................................................................................................................... 82.The Determinants of Wage Growth in Advanced Economies and in CESEE................................... 103.The Determinants of Negotiated Wage Growth and the Wage Drift in Selected AEs....................... 124.Post-Pandemic Model Performance and Structural Shifts................................................................ 16 III. Negotiated Wages at the Micro Level: The Case of Spain ....................................................................... 20 1.Data .................................................................................................................................................. 202.Empirical Framework ........................................................................................................................ 233.Results: Core Determinants of the Wage Phillips Curve .................................................................. 234.Results: Role of Institutional Features of Collective Bargaining ....................................................... 245.Results: The Impact of Labor Market Tightness on the Pass-Through of Past Inflation to Wages... 256.Robustness ....................................................................................................................................... 26 IV. Spillovers from Minimum and Public Wage Policies ............................................................................... 27 1.Common Empirical Framework......................................................................................................... 282.Minimum Wages ............................................................................................................................... 313.Public Sector Wages......................................................................................................................... 34 References......................................................................................................................................................... 66 FIGURES Figure 1. Wage Developments in Europe ............................................................................................................. 6Figure 2. Estimated Drivers of Wage Growth...................................................................................................... 11Figure 3. Estimated Contribution to Wage Growth Dynamics in AE and CESEE ............................................... 12Figure 4. Wage per Employee and Negotiated Wages in AE ............................................................................. 13Figure 5. Drivers of Negotiat