G20/OECD关于评估和促进新兴市场和发展中经济体资本流动弹性的报告：驱动因素和政策影响的证据

Evidence on drivers and policy implications G20/OECD report on assessing andpromoting capital flow resilience inEmerging Markets and DevelopingEconomies: Evidence on driversand policy implications © OECD 2024. This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and argumentsemployed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Member countries of the OECD. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitationof international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Cover design: ©wmaster890/ Getty Images Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) This work is made available under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. By using this work, you accept to bebound by the terms of this licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ). Attribution– you must cite the work. Translations– you must cite the original work, identify changes to the original and add the following text:In the event of anydiscrepancy between the original work and the translation, only the text of original work should be considered valid. Adaptations– you must cite the original work and add the following text:This is an adaptation of an original work by the OECD.The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this adaptation should not be reported as representing the official views of theOECD or of its Member countries. Third-party material– the licence does not apply to third-party material in the work. If using such material, you are responsible forobtaining permission from the third party and for any claims of infringement. You must not use the OECD logo, visual identity or cover image without express permission or suggest the OECD endorses youruse of the work. Any dispute arising under this licence shall be settled by arbitration in accordance with the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA)Arbitration Rules 2012. The seat of arbitration shall be Paris (France). The number of arbitrators shall be one. This document was prepared by the Secretariat of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) as aninput for discussions in the G20 International Financial Architecture (IFA) Working Group in 2024 with the aim for the note to beacknowledged as part of the G20 Brazilian Presidency. It is based on an outline presented at the G20 IFA Working Group in June2024. This report has been submitted to G20 leaders as a key deliverable of the G20Brazilian presidency. Table of contents G20/OECD report on assessing and promoting capital flow resilience in EmergingMarkets and Developing Economies: Evidence on drivers and policy implications2 1 Introduction Context7Structural factors underpinning resilient and green capital flows7 2 Regional differences in capital flow composition, volatility and investor base9Regional differences in composition and volatility9Differences in the investor base: The role of NBFI intermediation13The role of index-based investing15 3 The evolving role of global factors17 Global push factors are consistently significant drivers affecting post-GFC portfolio flows to EMs 17EMs have managed to reduce their sensitivity to the global financial cycle in the post-GFCperiod21Despite this strengthened resilience, there remains wide heterogeneity across EMs in theirsensitivity to global shocks21 The role of monetary policy frameworks and governance24The role of macroeconomic fundamentals27Macroprudential policy stringency and capital account policy restrictiveness28 5 Resilient capital flows: Attracting green investment33 FDI in renewable energy33Portfolio capital flows to green sectors: evidence from investment funds34 6 Conclusions 37Take-aways on how to foster resilient capital flows37 References Annex A. Statistical annex 53 Notes FIGURES Figure 1. Comparison of capital flow dynamics in Emerging markets10Figure 2. Portfolio flows are the most volatile type of flows to EMs, FDI the least volatile11Figure 3. Divergent Monthly Portfolio Inflows to EMs since 202213Figure 4. The rise of NBFIs in Emerging Markets14Figure 5. Investment funds have varying importance in different EMs15Figure 6. Changes in country weights in indices are frequent and significant drivers of portfolio flows16Figure 7. Global factors were consistent significant drivers of EM portfolio inflows post-GFC18Figure 8. The impact of global factors on FDI and other inflows19Figure 9. Higher global and country geopolitical risk is associated with lower aggregate portfolio inflows andwith lower country allocation of investment funds20Figure 10. EM portfolio flow resilience to a broad range of global shocks has increased significantly.21Figure 11. Global financial variables do not hit EMs in the same way22Figure 12. Changes in EM monetary policy frameworks24Figure 13. The degree of central bank independence is assoc