捷克共和国的住房负担能力：驱动因素、动态和政策选择

Housing Affordability inthe Czech Republic: Drivers, Dynamics, and Esha Chhabra SIP/2026/036 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available at 2026APR Prepared by Esha Chhabra Authorized for distribution by Vincenzo Guzzo IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was ABSTRACT:Worsening housing affordability in the Czech Republic reflects a structural imbalance betweensupply and demand, where income-driven demand has persistently outpaced construction capacity constrainedby slow permitting processes and municipal fragmentation. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR)framework, this paper quantifies the contributions of demand, supply, and monetary shocks to movements in RECOMMENDED CITATION:Chhabra, Esha. Housing Affordability in the Czech Republic: Drivers, Dynamics,and Policy Options. IMF Selected Issues Paper (SIP/2026/36). Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Housing Affordability inthe Czech Republic: Czech Republic Esha Chhabra1 CZECH REPUBLIC SELECTED ISSUES March4, 2026 ApprovedByEuropean Department Prepared ByEsha Chhabra (STA) CONTENTS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC: DRIVERS, DYNAMICS, ANDPOLICY OPTIONS___________________________________________________________________2 A. Introduction______________________________________________________________________2B. Structural Drivers of Housing Market Dynamics__________________________________4C. Decomposition of House Price Movements_______________________________________6D. Policy Options____________________________________________________________________8E. Conclusion_______________________________________________________________________11 BOX 1.Methodological Framework for House Price Decomposition______________________8 FIGURES 1. Measures of Housing Affordability________________________________________________32.Income Growth and Credit Conditions____________________________________________43. Construction and Housing Supply________________________________________________54. Drivers of House Price Growth____________________________________________________7 REFERENCES References_________________________________________________________________________13 HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC: Worsening housing affordability in the Czech Republic reflects a structural imbalance between supplyand demand, where income-driven demand has persistently outpaced construction capacity constrainedby slow permitting processes and municipal fragmentation. Using a structural vector autoregression(SVAR) framework, this paper quantifies the contributions of demand, supply, and monetary shocks to A.Introduction 1.Housing affordability is macro-critical because it directly affects household consumption, savings behavior, and financial stability.When housing costs outpace incomegrowth, the effects propagate across multiple channels: a rising share of household budgetsabsorbed by housing costs compresses non-housing consumption, particularly for younger andcredit-constrained households; rising household debt burdens increase financial vulnerabilities; 2.TheCzech Republic has experienced one of the sharpest deteriorations in housingaffordability in the European Union.House prices rose at an average annual rate of nearly 9percent between 2013 and 2021, accelerating sharply during the pandemic-era boom beforemoderating during the 2022–2023 monetary tightening cycle. The market entered a recovery phase 3.These price increases have led to amarked deterioration in housing affordabilitysince 2015.The price-to-income ratio rosestrongly through the late 2010s before surgingaround 2021–22. While this ratio has eased from itspeak, it remains well above pre-pandemic levels,indicating sustained pressure on household capitals in Europe, requiring 13-15 years of gross annual income to purchase a standardized 70- 4.Housing market dynamics also have implications for financial stability given theconcentration of bank exposures in property-related lending.Housing loans account for close tohalf of total bank credit to the private non-financial sector, and the share has been rising steadily …even with the sustained increases in real income, house price-to-income ratio surged during the 2020-22 boom, before moderating as …withCzech households allocating a higher share of income tohousing costs than most EU peers and lower-income households Czech Republicexperienced one of the sharpest deteriorations inhousing affordability, with the number of annual salaries required to 5.Thispaperanalyzes the dynamics underlying the Czech Republic's worsening housingaffordability.First, it examines the fundamental drivers of demand, including income gr