澳新动态摘要：房价上涨使住房可负担性恶化

Issuer of report:HSBC Bank Australia LimitedView HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsPaul BloxhamChief Economist, Australia, New Zealand & GlobalCommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedpaulbloxham@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9255 2635Jamie CullingEconomist, Australia, New Zealand & GlobalCommoditiesHSBC Bank Australia Limitedjamie.culling@hsbc.com.au+61 2 9006 5042EconomicsAustralia ◆◆◆ Housingaffordability is low and has worsenedIn general, housing affordabilitycan be thought of as the cost ofhousingrelative tohouseholdincome.A commonly cited metric to assess housing affordability isthe ratio of themedianhousing price toaverage (or median)household disposable income. If housing pricesrise fasterthan incomes, as they have done over recent decadesin Australia,the housingprice-to-incomeratio rises,andhousing affordabilityweakens(Chart1).Housing prices have risen across all of Australia’s regions and price levels vary considerablyacross the capitalcities andhave risenat different speeds at different times reflecting a range offactors(Chart 2). The rise in housing prices has outpaced incomes in all of the cities, reducingSydney has the highest housing prices in the country, and despite New South Wales havinghigher incomes, affordability appears to be worst in Sydney, with the housing price-to-incomeratio at 6.5 times(Chart 3).However, the figures suggest some equalisationin affordabilitylevelshas occurred in recent times, with affordability appearing to worsen more in the smallercities in recent years as housing prices haverisen faster in these locations, and outpaced2.…driven by housing pricegrowthoutpacing incomesSource:Corelogic4.…whereas Sydney is the leastaffordablecompared to wagesSource:Corelogic,ABS,HSBC estimatesNote: The ratios are calculated using the average weekly earnings in a respectiveState and that State’s capital’s mean housing price.0200,000400,000600,000800,0001,000,0001,200,00019901994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026Australia State Capital City Housing Prices(median sale price, 3-month rolling average, $A)SydneyMelbourneBrisbaneAdelaidePerthAustralia0246810121416SydneyMelbourneBrisbaneAdelaidePerthAustralia (5capital citiescombined)Housing Affordability(mean housing price to annual wage ratio)20122016Last 12-months affordability across all regions (Chart 3).incomes by more than in Sydney and Melbourne.Source: Corelogic,ABS,HSBC3.Housing prices are higher in Sydney,but so are incomes ….Source: Corelogic,ABS,HSBC estimatesNote:Thecapital citiesratios are calculated using the respective State’s annualhousehold disposable income (national accounts),accountingfor interest payments,alongside the number of dwellings in the respective Sate on a given Census date,and the State’s capital’s median housing price.The Australiaaggregateisslightlydifferent from Chart 2, given that the State accounts do not capturehouseholdconsumption of fixedcapital.01234567SydneyMelbourneHousing Affordability(median housing price to annual disposable income ratio)2012 BrisbaneAdelaidePerthAustralia (5capital citiescombined)2016Last 12-months 2Australia’s housing price-to-income ratio is high …… relative to the country’sown history and to othercomparable economies 3Anothermetricto assesshousing affordabilitythatis oftencited,isthehousing price-to-wage ratio(Chart4).For Australia, the housing price-to-wage ratioscouldsuggestthathousing is even lessaffordablethan the housing price-to-income ratiosindicates.Of course, the difference between thetwo ratios inpart reflectsthathouseholdstypically have more than one person earning a wage,and that wages are not the only source of income.For example, although the housing price-to-wage measure for Sydney is 14.2-times,the housing price-to-income ratio is 6.5-times.That said, although the precise ratios may differ when comparing housing to income or wages,respectively, they paint a similar pictureofworsening housing affordabilityin Australia.How does Australiacompareinternationally?While housing affordability is a concern for many economies around the world, Australia’ssituation looks particularly challenging.For instance, on the Bank of International Settlements’recentlypublishedHousing AffordabilityIndex (Chart 5;BIS, 2023), Australia appears to haveone of theworsthousing affordabilitylevelscompared to many othercomparable economies,including Canada,New Zealand, theUK andtheUS.Though housing in Australia appears more affordable than in Hong Kong1,asthe BIS notes, “the reasons for very low affordability levels in these countries are likely different”.5. The BIS suggests lower housingaffordability in Australia than in the UK,Canada and NewZealand …6. … although the OECD suggeststheseeconomies have seen a larger fall in theprice-to-income ratios recentlySource: Bank of International Settlements(BIS)Note: The index measures the extent to which a median-income household canqualify for a mortgage loan to pu