中国金融：亚太地区近期对外投资政策的真实影响评估

China Financials| Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Richard Xu, CFAEquity AnalystRichard.Xu@morganstanley.com Recent outbound investmentpolicies: gauging the true impact Chiyao HuangEquity AnalystChiyao.Huang@morganstanley.com Rick ZhaoEquity AnalystRick.Zhao@morganstanley.com+852 2239-7033Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ We believe the new State Council outbound investment rulesare aimed at protecting outbound business investments ratherthan focusing on household financial investments. Enforcementof investment account services for mainland residents is aboutproper licensing requirement. Nick LordEquity AnalystNick.Lord@morganstanley.com Alvaro SerranoEquity AnalystAlvaro.Serrano@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley Asia Limited+ +44 20 7425-6942 New State Council regulation on outbound investments is aimed at formallegislative process to protect Chinese overseas business investments rather thanaiming at household financial investments:First, during the State Council pressconference announcing the new rules, only the Ministry of Justice, the NDRC.and theMinistry of Commerce were present – none of the financial regulators wereinvolved. We view that as a clear sign that it is a policy that targets Chineseoverseas investment in real businesses or large stakes in overseas companies ratherthan normal financial investments by households. With China's outboundinvestments rising, we believe the goal is to set up a centralized legislativeframework to systematically protect Chinese outbound investments and long-termbusinesses interests and replace the various prior regulations. China's financial firmsare also increasing support for expansion of Chinese overseas investment; thisshould help contain long-term financial risks, in our view. Beryl YangResearch AssociateBeryl.Yang@morganstanley.com +852 3963-2224 Chenqian LiuResearch AssociateChenqian.Liu@morganstanley.com+852 3963-0359Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte.+ Aitong LiResearch AssociateAitong.Li@morganstanley.com We think the CSRC is focusing on cleanup of cross-border stock tradinghappening onshore – the insurance business already went through similarchanges many years ago:We do not believe this is linked to the new State CouncilOutbound investment rules. Under the current enforcement standards, residents ofmainland China can continue to open and operate their investment accounts whilephysically in Hong Kong, but can no longer access key online investment functionswhile in mainland China – essentially the same standards that apply to insurancebusinesses. This is echoed by the HK SFCs' circular and clarification. We also seelimited risks to the annual quota of US$50,000 FX exchange for households. Basedon financial data that we track, we also believe household capital outflows remain ina reasonable range and are not a key concern behind these new rules. That said, webelieve data exchange via CRS to the onshore tax authority over mainland residents'overseas investment activities will continue, which is not new and not related tothese new developments. China Financials Asia PacificIndustry View Attractive Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. Concerns about AIA, HSBC, and Standard Chartered look overdone; HKEX willremain a long-term beneficiary of expanding formal capital connect channelsbetween the mainland and Hong Kong:We believe tech and industrial upgradeswill continue to help Chinese companies gain global market share and generatewealth in overseas markets. Together with legal capital account flow from mainlandChina, this should continue to drive healthy business growth for major financialfirms in Hong Kong. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Outbound Investment Regulation: More About the RealEconomy Going Global Than Household Capital Flight We think the new State Council Regulation is primarily an institutional framework for thereal economy's outbound investment, not a broad tightening of household financialinvestment or a reversal of capital account opening. The regulation defines outbound investment as obtaining ownership, control, operating-management rights or other interests in overseas enterprises/assets through assets,equity, financing, or guarantees. It also repeatedly frames the policy around high-qualityopening-up, Belt and Road, overseas risk m