美国工业与科技：数据中心项目管线 - 容量、建设与取消（2026年5月）

US Industrials & Tech: The Data Center Project Pipeline - Capacity,Construction & Cancellations (May '26) In this note, we update our monthly Data Center Capacity Tracker series, a comprehensivemonitor of N. American data center capacity by stage of development, operator, andgeography.To gain recurring access to the excel-based version of this data feed,please reach out to your salesperson.For our server model and performance of semi/hardware suppliers in AI supply chain, see our latestAI Server Pulsecheck. Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Alasdair Leslie+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com Project Pipeline.Over the last month, the data center project pipeline grew by 10%, up29 GW to 324 GW. Developers (22 GW) and crypto miners (6 GW) drove the majority ofthe growth this month, accounting for 75% and 21% of the increase, respectively. Of thedevelopers, the largest contributors were O’Leary Ventures (15 GW) and Carlyle Group(3 GW), while Core Scientific (2.3 GW), Riot (1.4 GW), and TeraWulf (1.2 GW) contributedmost for crypto miners. Hyperscalers actually saw capacity in pipeline decline marginallythis month. From a geographic standpoint, O’Leary Ventures drove the 8 GW increase inpipeline to Utah, while Texas remained a close second at 6 GW. Madison Rezaei+1 917 344 8622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com Varun Govindaraj+1 917 344 8543varun.govindaraj@bernsteinsg.com Gautam Chhugani+91 226 842 1416gautam.chhugani@bernsteinsg.com Under Construction.In May data center capacity under construction increased by4.4 GW to 63 GW. Hyperscalers (1.4 GW), developers (1.3 GW) and neoclouds (726MW) contributed to ~80% of new construction. Meta (638 MW) and Amazon (536 MW)contributed to ~90% of the hyperscalers’ increase. Of the colocators, Digital Realty (237MW) and STACK (153 MW) drove ~60% of their increase. New construction was largest inTexas (1.3 GW) and Missouri (1.2 GW) driving 60% of new construction in the month. Mark Shmulik+1 917 344 8508mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Stranded Capacity.The rise in local data center opposition/NIMBY continues drivingstranded capacity higher. This grew by 1.9 GW to 34 GW, representing 11% of totalpipeline, which remains up vs. 7-9% last summer, but is beginning to stabilize. The entiretyof the increase is captured by projects that are unaccounted for. Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Behind-the-meter power continues accelerating.During the month, the BTM pipelinegrew by 12% or 14 GW M/M and by 48% or 42 GW YTD to 129 GW. For comparison, only16 GW of BTM capacity is currently under construction, up 3 GW M/M. Currently, only 4%of the installed base of data centers use this approach, but 25% of the capacity underconstruction will use it and 40% of the projects in the pipeline will use it. Moreover, BTMprojects accounted for nearly 50% of the additions to May’s pipeline. The massive ramp inBTM supportsCAT’splan to 3x large engine capacity and the recent entry into the primepower market byCMI. Developers added the most (18 GW) to the BTM pipeline last month,and have been the most aggressive YTD (35 GW or 80%+ of total BTM additions). From anoperator type perspective, neoclouds are most reliant on BTM (64% of pipeline), followedby developers (50% of pipeline), and hyperscalers (36% of pipeline). BTM is also a tailwindfor electrical equipment players (ETN, HUBB) as onsite generation projects spend ~30%more on electrical distribution equipment than a project only connected to the grid. Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Daniel Zhu+1 917 344 8309daniel.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Connor Cerniglia, CFA+1 917 344 8472connor.cerniglia@bernsteinsg.com Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Electricals TAM update.Based on the current pipeline and company-disclosed $M/MWopportunity, we estimate the following data center TAMs: PWR ($4.4T), ETN ($758B), LGN($329B), VRT ($1T), Schneider ($865B), ABB ($648B), as well as several other OEMs. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedCAT estimate is Adjusted EPS EBITDA (M); LGN, IREN, CIFR, WULF, CLSK, MARA, RIOT estimate is EBITDA (M); AMZN, META, GOOGL, 2308.TT, 2360.TT,2382.TT, 3037.TT, ENR.GR estimate is Reported EPS; SIE.GR estimate is Reported EPS Organic Sales Growth (%) EBITA (M); ABBN.SW estimate isAdjusted EPS EBITA (M) Organic Sales Growth (%) EBITDA (M); PRY.IM estimate is Adjusted EPS Organic Sales Growth (%); CORZ estimate is ; LGN,CRWV valuation is EV/EBITDA (x); AMZN, META, GOOGL, 2308.TT, 2360.TT, 2382.TT, 3037.TT, WULF, MARA, RIOT, CORZ valuation is Reported P/E (x);IREN valuation is CFO CAGR; CIFR valuation is ; CLSK valuation is EBITDA CAGR; NVDA base year is 2026;Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS US Machinery & Electrical Eq