您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [伯恩斯坦]:美国工业与科技:数据中心项目管道 - 容量、建设与取消(2026年4月) - 发现报告

美国工业与科技:数据中心项目管道 - 容量、建设与取消(2026年4月)

信息技术 2026-05-20 伯恩斯坦 梅斌
报告封面

US Industrials & Tech: The Data Center Project Pipeline - Capacity,Construction & Cancellations (April '26) We introduce the first installation of our monthly Data Center Capacity Tracker series, acomprehensive monitor of N. American data center capacity by stage of development,operator, and geography.To gain recurring access to the excel-based version of thisdata feed, please reach out to your salesperson.For our server model and performance Chad Dillard+1 917 344 8469chad.dillard@bernsteinsg.com Alasdair Leslie+44 20 7762 4952alasdair.leslie@bernsteinsg.com Project Pipeline.Over the last month, the data center project pipeline grew by 5%, up14 GW to 295 GW. Developers drove the majority of the growth this month, accountingfor 86% of the increase, followed by hyperscalers (37%), then neoclouds (13%). Of thehyperscalers, Amazon accounted for the majority of the M/M change in project pipeline.From a geographic standpoint, Texas remains the center of gravity, adding 6 GW to the Madison Rezaei+1 917 344 8622madison.rezaei@bernsteinsg.com Mark Shmulik+1 917 344 8508mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com Under Construction.Over the last month, data center capacity under constructionincreased by 6.5 GW to 59 GW. Colocators (2.2 GW), developers (2.2 GW) and hyperscalers(1.8 GW) contributed to ~95% of new construction. Of the colocators, Vantage DataCenters drove 73% (or 1.6 GW) of the increase. Meta (1.1 GW) and Amazon (534 MW)contributed most to the hyperscalers’ increase. Construction was largest in Texas (2 GW) Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com Stranded Capacity.The rise in local data center opposition/NIMBY is driving strandedcapacity higher. This grew by 3.4 GW to 32 GW, representing 11% of total pipeline, upfrom 7-9% last summer. During the month, developers drove 50%+ of the increase, while Alex Wang, CFA+852 2123 2613alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Daniel Zhu+1 917 344 8309daniel.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Powering data centers with behind-the-meter power is accelerating.During themonth, the BTM pipeline grew by 2% or 3.3 GW M/M and by 30% or 28 GW YTD to 115GW. For comparison, only 13 GW of BTM capacity is currently under construction, up 3 GWM/M. Currently, only 4% of the installed base of data centers use this approach, but 22% of Connor Cerniglia, CFA+1 917 344 8472connor.cerniglia@bernsteinsg.com the capacity under construction will use it and 39% of the projects in the pipeline will use it.The massive ramp in BTM supportsCAT’splan to 3x large engine capacity and the possibleentry into the prime power market byCMI. Developers added the most (7 GW) to the BTMpipeline last month, and have been the most aggressive in the last 12M (16 GW or ~60%of total BTM additions). From an operator type perspective, neoclouds are most relianton BTM (66% of pipeline), followed by developers (40% of pipeline), and hyperscalers Specialist Sales Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com Electricals TAM update.Based on the current pipeline and company-disclosed $M/MWopportunity, we estimate the following data center TAMs: PWR ($4T), ETN ($690B), LGN($299B), VRT ($914B), Schneider ($787B), ABB ($590B), as well as several other OEMs. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS US Machinery & Electrical Equipment:our latest data center capacity tracking exercise is further supportive of the shortand long-term tailwinds seen in the electrification space. We see all data center exposed names in our coverage benefiting remain healthy. Remain Outperform on ETN ($509), HUBB ($584), LGN ($103), J ($163), TRMB ($85), and URI ($1,153). RemainMarket-Perform on CAT ($879), CMI ($700), OSK ($138) and PWR ($725). European Capital Goods:We rate Schneider (PT €310), Siemens (€300), Legrand (€170), Siemens Energy (€210), andPrysmian (€110) Outperform, and rate ABB (CHF 70) Market-Perform. US Communications Infrastructure:We rate DLR ($232) and EQIX ($1,222) Outperform. We rate CRWV ($67) Underperform. US Internet:We rate Amazon Outperform with PT of $315. We rate Meta Outperform with PT of $850. We rate Google Market-Perform with PT of $390. Global Software: Microsoft (Outperform $646) started to shift from spending ~60% of their CAPEX on datacenters (land,building and improvements) to ~33% as the start to approach having enough global capacity to meet demand and growingdatacenter capacity more in-line with Cloud / AI reveneue growth. Note that some of their recent datacenter capacity wasadded via leased capacity and via shorter term neoCloud contracts but the direct is in-line with our thesis. Oracle (Outperform, capacity being built by 3rd US Semiconductors & Semicap Equipment: NVDA (Outperform, $300.00):The datacenter opportunity is significant, andstill early, with material upside still possible.AVGO (Outperform, 525.00):A strong 2025 AI trajectory seems set to accelerateinto 2026, bolstered by software, cash deployment,