量子未来的赢家与输家——行业专家网络研讨会文字记录与要点

The Quantum Leap: Winners and Losers in the Quantum future -Industry Expert Webinar Transcript and Takeaways We hosted a webinar with a Quantum industry expert with 15 years experience in leadingQuantum companies and large tech, as a follow-up to our recently publishedQuantum Deepdivenote. This note is an edited transcript with key takeaways. Mark C. Newman+1 212 845 7822mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com April Li+1 917 344 8339april.li@bernsteinsg.com A key framework to understand the quantum landscape is the distinctionbetween manufactured qubits and natural qubits.Manufactured qubits, such assuperconducting, silicon spin, and topological, are engineered systems that benefit fromfast speeds. However, they tend to suffer from higher noise and shorter coherence times. Incontrast, natural qubits, including trapped ions and neutral atoms, are inherently identicalwith long coherence and strong noise resistance, while the main drawback being speed. Phoebe Sun+1 917 344 8481phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com Currently, there are three leading modalities: superconducting (manufactured),trapped ions (natural) and neutral atoms (natural).Superconducting leads in scale,speed, and industrial maturity, supported by significant investment from large tech.Meanwhile, trapped ions and neutral atoms are advancing rapidly due to their superior qubitquality and natural ability to perform long-range interactions. Other modalities, such asspin qubits and photonic, are still earlier in development but show scaling potential, whiletopological represent a high-risk, high-reward approach that remains far from practicalimplementation. The trade-off between speed and accuracy influences application fit.Problems thatrequire repeated sampling to estimate real-valued outputs, such as chemistry simulations,materials science, favor fast systems like superconducting. Problems requiring a discretecorrect answer, such as cryptography or combinatorial optimization, favor the higher fidelityof natural qubits. While IBM expects Quantum Advantage will be achieved this year, large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computing is still many many years away. Progress dependson key milestones incl. development of logical qubits, logical gates, and scalable error-corrected systems. Quantum computing is highly capital intensive. As a result, the dominant modelwill likely be cloud-based, rather than widespread ownership of machines.Earlydemand is driven by academia, government, and research fields with growing interest fromindustries like finance, logistics, and optimization. Competitive dynamics favor large technology companies such as IBM and Googledue to their access to capital, infrastructure, and talent.IBM, in particular, has astrong advantage in software and ecosystem like Qiskit, though its hardware leadership isincreasingly challenged by higher-quality natural qubit systems. Startups are more likely tosucceed through specialization, partnerships, or government-backed initiatives rather thancompeting head-on at full scale. Overall, the industry is likely to evolve into a multi-modality ecosystem, where bothmanufactured and natural qubit coexist, each optimized for different applications, withhybrid quantum-classical computing emerging as the most practical path forward. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE DETAILS We hosted Quantum industry expert with 15 years experience in leading Quantum companies and large tech, as a follow-up to ourrecently published Quantum Deepdive note. This note is an edited transcript with key takeaways. Speaker Key:Mark Newman =MNTechnology manager in the quantum computing industry =Expert MN: Good morning, everyone. I'm Mark Newman, Bernstein's US IT Hardware Analyst. And today, we have the pleasure ofhosting this webinar with a Technology Manager in the Quantum Computing Industry, who has15 years experience in leadingQuantum companies and large tech. At both companies, he worked on Quantum, so he has a wealth of knowledge andexperience in quantum. And he is not biased because he is working for a non-profit currently. Expert, thank you very much forjoining us. Anything else you'd like to add in terms of your background? Expert: Yeah, absolutely. I've worked in the quantum computing industry and academia for the last 15 years or so. My career issort of taking me up the whole stack that makes a viable quantum computer. I started off much more focused on hardware, eventhough I am a theoretical physicist by training, and then slowly over time moved to more system-level considerations, and thennowadays I work more on the software applications and algorithm side. My primary research expertise and focus for the lastdecade has been on characterization and benchmarking of quantum computers, so really understanding not only what they arecapable of doing now, but what we can learn now to tell us about what they might be capable of in the near-term future and inthe far-term future. So that's really been my focus. MN: Great, thanks very much, Ex