MENA能源-直击要点：霍尔木兹海峡后的赢家、输家与追赶交易

MENA Energy - Strait to the point: winners, losers and catch-up On June 15, 2026 — President Trump's 80th birthday — the U.S. and Iran signed a landmarkpeace accord, ending nearly four months of armed conflict that began on February 28 withU.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian territory. Brokered by Pakistan, the agreement takes the formof a 60-day MoU extending the ceasefire and immediately reopening the Strait of Hormuz tounrestricted commercial shipping. Key terms include Iran's 30-day mine-clearing commitment, Abdessamad Raghibi, Ph.D.+212 5 22 86 79 41abdessamad.raghibi@bernsteinsg.com Guillaume Delaby+33 1 42 13 62 29guillaume.delaby@bernsteinsg.comJames Hooper +44 20 7676 6995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com Asymmetric damage across coverage.The closure inflicted uneven damage. ADNOC Gasbore the heaviest blow, with FY26 EBITDA guidance slashed to $3.5–4bn from $5.2bnin 2025 as LNG shipments were reduced to a trickle. Fertiglobe and SABIC faced aparadoxical squeeze: urea prices surged 65% post-outbreak, yet physical inability to shipthrough the Strait prevented full monetisation, SABIC partially mitigated this by reroutingvolumes via Red Sea ports. Drilling favored international exposure: ADES suspended ahandful of offshore GCC rigs but maintained its bullish +33–44% YoY FY26 EBITDA growth Specialist Sales Gareth Williams+44 20 7762 5256gareth.b.williams@bernsteinsg.com James Brady+44 20 7762 5272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com Clear winners and losers on reopening.ADNOC Gas is the standout beneficiary: restoredLNG export routes combined with still-elevated spot prices could drive a sharp Q3/Q4earnings recovery toward the top of guidance. Fertiglobe is equally well-positioned, witha backlog of stranded production ready to ship into a market where urea and ammoniaprices remain well above pre-war levels but ST price normalization risks should persist.Given our bullish 2027-30 fertilizers outlook, we consider any price normalization as arelevant entry point. ADES and Arabian Drilling should benefit from accelerated resumption Tail risk: what if the Strait stays shut?The answer is already embedded in YTD price action.SABIC, Fertiglobe, and ADES — all carrying meaningful international revenue exposure —have outperformed their domestically anchored peers since the onset of hostilities, reflectingthe market's implicit hedge toward earnings streams less sensitive to GCC infrastructuredisruption. A persistent Strait closure remains a tail risk, not a base case, but investors BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate: •Adnoc Gas - Outperform (PT = AED3.98). •Fertiglobe - Outperform (PT = AED3.88).•Arabian Drilling - Outperform (PT = SAR109.30).•ADES - Outperform (PT = SAR26.17). VALUATION COMPS TABLE EXHIBIT 1:MENA Energy - Our Calls.(as of June 15 2026). EXHIBIT 2:MENA energy valuation comp. UAE coverage features a growing and consistent dividend policy whileSaudi coverage leverages attractive valuation. Seek value in Saudi Arabia and yield in the UAE DETAILS MENA Energy Research: •MENA Energy/Drilling: Last dip before the reprice — Why jack-up day rates must catch up with fundamentals•Adnoc Gas - We reiterate our 'Quality play amid the Hormuz chaos' stance. Outperform.•Adnoc L&S: Inflection point. PT upgraded to AED8.39 (from AED6.94). We expect a strong share performance in2H26•Pushbacks from our MENA Energy Coverage Initiation (3/3) - The Geopolitical Discount•Pushbacks from our MENA Energy Coverage Initiation (2/3) - SABIC: discount or value trap?•DEWA Model Update - The utility behind the ceasefire trade. Outperform.•Fertiglobe - The global cost floor may be higher than we thought: why the nitrogen bear case no longer holds•Pushbacks from our MENA Energy Coverage Initiation (1/3) – Not all Energy Cyclicals are created equal•ADES 1Q26 model update – The price of tightness: Why ADES deserves a premium in a constrained jack-up market EXHIBIT 3:Conflict-period laggards — DEWA, Adnoc Gas, Empower, Arabian Drilling — offer the most asymmetricupside. As hormuz headlines inflect, the performance gap built since march 2026 is ripe to close ADNOC Gas has oscillated tightly around the Gas Sector EV/EBITDA and the LT average (~9.5x) since its listing in March 2023,with only brief excursions above STD+1 (~10x) in mid-2024 and early 2026. During the Iran conflict, the closure of the Strait ofHormuz disrupted LNG export flows from the Gulf — representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade — creating a contradictory With the Strait now reopening, ADNOC Gas regains full export route optionality, and the current valuation near the LT average of~9.5x screens as attractive given the volume recovery uplift ahead. EXHIBIT 6:Adnoc Gas trades around sector mean as hormuz deal unlocks LNG export optionality which shouldopen the room for a valuation catch up ADES began at an extreme premium above 23x in late 2023 before de-rating sharply toward sector levels, while Arabian Drilling(ADC) has traded more in lin