飞行的未来：可持续航空燃料价格与供应预测网络研讨会

The Futures of Flight: SustainableAviation Fuels Price and SupplyForecasts Webinar Tore AldenHead of Agricultural Analytics Technology, feedstock availability and globalmarkets contribute to an ever-evolving future 3 2 As SAF programspropagate aroundthe world,producers will Feedstockavailability is keydetriment tobuilding Technologies arecompeting forviability in the raceto build SAF Technology, feedstock availability and global marketscontribute to an ever-evolving future for SAF 2 Technologies arecompeting forviability in the raceto build SAF As SAF programs Feedstockavailability is keydetriment tobuilding Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) Three technologies arecompeting for viabilityin the race to build SAFcapacity and each havestrengths and Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) Power-to-Liquid (PtL) HEFA is the primary source of SAF capacity in the North American market Strengths 1.Mature Technology2.Near-Term Scalability3.Policy Recognition Weaknesses 1.Feedstock Dependence2.Price Volatility Uncertainty and operating expenses currently limitAtJcapacity, but the US ethanolindustry could provide about 20x Fastmarkets’ current projection Strengths 1.Feedstock Flexibility2.High GHG Reduction Potential3.Policy Benefits Weaknesses 1.Higher Capital Costs2.Commercial Scale Challenges While still years away,PtLcould dominate the biofuel industry Fischer-Tropsch 1.Gasification process not yet widespread atindustrial level2.Higher operating costs Power-to-Liquid / e-Fuels 1.Energy costs make technology prohibitivelyexpensive2.Limited policy support3.Nearly unlimited and inexpensive feedstock Technology, feedstock availability and global marketscontribute to an ever-evolving future for SAF 2 Feedstockavailability is keydetriment tobuilding As SAF programs Technologies arecompeting forviability in the raceto build SAF propagate aroundthe world,producers will Growth in US SAF supply will be feedstock constrained and may not meet the three-billion-gallon goal for 2030 SAF prices expected to remain flat to slightly lower over the next year Despite recent growth the US market is limited in UCO supply •The US vegetable oil marketproduced 30.3 billion pounds in2023/24.•Fastmarkets estimates roughlysix billion pounds of collection. Chinese UCO will play a larger role in world feedstock markets, until domesticdemand grows •China consumes 34 billionpounds of vegetable oil eachyear similar to the US, butper-capita UCO collection in •Chinese collectioninfrastructure remains, insome cases, technology free, US feedstock prices have converged as demand outstrips supply ! Feedstock variability based onrelative profitability has beenendemic to the biomass-baseddiesel industry from its inception. Attractive economics, not biofuel policy drove the shift from the EU to US •EU buyers accounted for mostof Chinese shipments in 2022,securing 96 percent of thecombined US and EU •Beginning in 2023, US policychanges and record prices ledto US buyers attracting 60% of Technology, feedstock availability and global marketscontribute to an ever-evolving future for SAF 2 3 As SAF programspropagate aroundthe world,producers will Feedstockavailability is keydetriment tobuilding Technologies arecompeting forviability in the raceto build SAF From feedstock to frameworks: Why policy matters now •The SAF industryis morecomplicatedthan the renewable •Growing interest in SAF followingthe release of the CORSIAprogram and the passage of theInflation Reduction Acthavecombined with additional policy Surprising results from the 45z credits suggest sufficient revenue to offset the lossof the BTC •Based on the included sample data, the 45z, ifrestored, will generatesubstantial credit valuesthat more than offset the •Whether DCO generatesthe most revenue per gallon Understanding the revenue implications of fuel, feedstock, and markets will becritical for producers in the SAF market •A key weakness of the AtJpathway is the lack of policy •Sugar-cane ethanol will likelyflow from Brazil to the US tocapture credit values Government, private, and international partnerships to establish the supply chains European model US model •Binding Targets and Mandates, Subsidies and Grants,Regulatory Penalties and Enforcement.•Regulatory driven through direct mandates, butimplementation varies at the national level •Tax credits and financial incentives, public funding andR&D, Market-Based Mechanisms•Focus on incentivizing producers rather than penalties. •US system drives robust private-sector response, butoutcomes can vary from intentions. •European system provides strict regulations, butimplementation canvary from nation to nation. The SAF market is unlike other biofuel markets and requires producers to be flexible enough to meet the Conclusion •SAF producers need to plan to compete with jet-Awithout policy support. •HEFA and AtJ are currently the most viable •Chinese UCO is and will likely remain a criti