卡夫亨氏：热狗车将驶向何方？（网络研讨会记录）

F25E10.16.08.410.210.228 May 202536.53/26.015,888.5531,41150,3726M(16.9)(1.8)(15.0)08/2405/255000550060006500 U.S. FoodKraft Heinz Co/TheRatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetKHCAdjusted EPSKHC (USD)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Transcript)Kraft Heinz’s board announced earlier this week that it is exploring strategic transactionsas well as changes in board composition with the departure of two board membersfrom Berkshire Hathaway (see our initial thoughts here:Kraft Heinz: Which way for theWienermobile? Board evaluating strategic options & board membership falls).We thenfollowed up with a perspective on how a hypothetic merger between GIS and KHC could helpthe companies bridge the gap on EPS growth while GLP-1 and MAHA pressures play out:U.S.Food: Using a merger of GIS with KHC as an illustration of how US food companies couldweather the next few years.This report is a transcript of a conversation with investors that we held shortly afterthe Kraft Heinz announcement- we explore the kinds of strategic transactions that theboard might be considering, ranging from modest changes like disposals of non-core brandslike Oscar Mayer lunchmeat or Maxwell House coffee, to a middle ground of spinning orselling off the legacy Heinz business, which has grown at double the rate of the legacy Kraftbusiness over the past decade, to a larger-scale merger with another diversified packagedfood company like General Mills, as a way to drive out sizeable cost synergies over the nextfew years.The other question is whether the departure of two board members could signify thatBerkshire Hathaway may sell off some of its 27% stake in Kraft Heinz:While there hasbeen no selling down since another Berkshire Hathaway board member stepped down lastyear, it’s possible that the departure of the other two could be an indication that the holdingcould be pared down over time.Investment ImplicationsWe rate Kraft Heinz Market-Perform with a target price of $29.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 04:00 UTC Completion Date: 28 May 2025 21:14 UTC F24AF25E3.062.63 F26E2.61FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGREBITDA (M)6,4176,0226,076(2.7)%EBIT (M)5,3604,9454,890(4.5)%Gross Margin (%)34.734.334.3--Operating Margin (%)20.719.719.4--Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$38$36$34$32$30$28$2605/24 DETAILSIvan Holman, Consumer Sales SpecialistGood morning, good afternoon, everybody. Thank you very much for joining us.My name is Ivan Holman. I'm the Consumer Desk Analyst. I'm very pleased to be joined today by Alexia Howard and, as advertised,this was kind of a quick turnaround but we wanted to talk about some of the M&A optionality around Kraft Heinz, particularly givensome of the headlines. Alexia sent in some questions to IR. They responded. So, she’s interfaced with management for kind of themost up to date color.We're going to keep this short and sweet, kind of a 30-minute, quick, snappy little session. Alexia is going to talk to us about whather thoughts are and, maybe, some of the color that she's gotten from management in terms of the path forward here for a spacethat obviously is ripe for M&A, and we've seen some pretty significant transactions, actually, over the last couple of years.As always, please regard this as your meeting. Three very quick mechanisms I'd like to highlight. If you'd like to put in somequestions, we do have some time carved out for Q&A. One, Pigeonhole, fully anonymized, double-blind submission form. It's a linkincluded with your invitation. Please feel free to drop questions in there.Number two, more convenient, I'm on Bloomberg, so if you'd like to hit me up during the sequence of the call, please feel free to doso. I'm happy to write questions for Alexia that way. And then just good old-fashioned email as a tertiary method of communication.First name, dot, last name, bernsteinsg.com, for both myself and Alexia. So, with that, without further ado, I'm going to pass thebaton to Alexia. Alexia, the floor is yours.Alexia Howard, Senior Analyst, U.S. FoodPerfect. Thanks so much. I’m glad everybody was able to join at such short notice this morning. We wanted to get on top of thisas quickly as possible. Frankly, I saw the headline yesterday, the press release from Kraft Heinz saying basically two things, theboard is evaluating strategic transactions and there are two board members that are stepping down that are associated with orpart of Berkshire Hathaway. I want to take each of those pieces in turn.When that headline came through yesterday, my immediate reaction was, oh, my gosh, it's almost exactly ten years since we gotthe announcement of the Kraft Heinz merger. So, here we are ten years down the road, and we've got news but not concrete newsof anything that might actually be transpiring at this poin