甲骨文2026财年第四季度：执行良好，清晰度提升

+1917344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.comFiroz Valliji, CFA +1 917 344 8316firoz.vallji@bernsteinsg.comShelly Tang, CFA +1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com ORCL Oracle 4Q26: good execution, increasing clarity targets with nomajor hiccups or obscured data points.However,the stock swung back andforth post Q4 earnings and ended~10%down.While Cloud revenue slightly missed (OCIbeats and SaaS slightly below),webelieve the sticker shockwas theCAPEX guide andtheadditional capital raise in FY27,which will not convertthe skeptics and those on the fenceinto believers, just yet. $20-25Bofthe $90-95BFY27Capexguide beingfunded by customer prepayments(Management has not specified debt or equity),which we expected in FY28, in CY27,management, based on the current revenue ramp, expectFY28 to bethe peak Capex year.We expect further funding needs to be minimal to none afterthis raise. Infact,Oracle isnotonlyexecutingwell butalso communicatingbetter,withmoredetailsclarity and increased confidence. In addition to clarity around CAPEX and funding plans;management has assured that they could pass along rising component costs in their long-duration contracts; and explained their capacity ramping schedule in 2027 and their OCIAlgross margin trajectory (trough in FY27 and then improving). We believe this clarity, opennessin disclosure as well as continued execution will increase investor confidence and helpinvestorsmoreeasilymodelthevaluebeing createdespeciallybythe Aldatacenterbuildout. InvestmentImplications clarity around the ORCLthesis.With revenue ramping,RPO increasing,strong margins, anda solid FY27 guide increase the setup is really strong. We raised our price target to $325as we rolledforward our estimates, but lowered our P/FE multiplefrom 25.5xto 24.5x, 6/10/2026 Lastnight Oracledelivered anotherstrongquarterandguidefor Q1and reiterated FY27guidance, butthe stock swungback- Exhibit 2)withsoftwareand Cloudrevenues slightlybelowconsensus (OClwas likelyabove and SaaS slightlybelow),the stickershock was mostly driven bythe $90Bto$95B in Total CAPEXguide forFY27 (cashCAPEXis~$70B, with the rest beingfundedby customerprepayments and payment timing to suppliers).While we understand some investors are likely to focus on the size of the CAPEX number which no one can deny is huge, we believe that the company is not only executing well but is communicating for the 2nd quarter far better, with far more detailsand an increased senseofconfidence,clarity,andopennessthat shouldhavea verypositive impacton investorsentiment.Inaddition,oneneedstoputinperspectiveasmanagementis alreadytalking aboutwhenCAPEX willpeak. takeaways: out very well in terms of delivering toward that trajectory. There were no major hiccups or obscured data points. The Cloudsideofthebusiness wasabit weakerthanexpectedduetotheSaasbusinesswhichhas slowedincrementally(notmuchdifferent from many SaaS companies) as the buying cycle extended earlier this year as IT became concerned due to Saasapocalypse fears (many of which are proving out to be wrong or overblown). concerned thata new CFO would increase the conservatismused in themodel and lower revenue or earnings whichdid not occur.The whole management team seems very confident in the numbers and the underlying drivers of thosenumbers. that these numbers were already in the long term models (see Oracle: The story is better than we thought, with better upsidepotential). The pace of the capital raise ($40B in FY27)is coming in a bit earlierthan we expected, but this does not derail our long :Oracle announced$90 to $95B intotal CAPEXof which $20-25B is coming from clientpre-payments and only$70B inOraclecashwill beused. :Management, basedonthecurrentstateof business (e.g.revenueramp)expectsFY28tobethepeakCapexyear.With Management expects FY27to be the trough year for AI business GM.While company GM could continue to be impactedby the revenue mix shift, but like for like Al GM will improve over time and help overall GM. Component pricing: One of the concerns investors had going into the results was that with the recently announced pricingincreases on memory and other components,which drove increased CAPEX at Microsoft (Microsoft 3QFY26 earnings)with more details on the call back thatfor projects that management has clarity and line-of-sight to pricing,Oracle has fixedpriced contracts (for OClI these arethe contracts going live shortly)but for contracts with longertime durations or where thepricing could vary, Oracle has conditions in their contracts that allow them to pass along those costs. In other words, Oracle'sgross profit dollars will not be meaningfully impacted by price increases. The new CFO,whostartedthisquarter,isfocusing investors onthequestion of Return onInvested Capital (ROiC)whichshe explained will be in the 20s for OCI Aldatacenters. We seebetter disclosureand clarity and sense higher confidencefrommanagement.Webelieve this clarity,openness indisclosure as well as continued ex