4Q26：执行良好，提高清晰度

Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8506mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Global Software Oracle Corp Firoz Valliji, CFA+1 917 344 8316firoz.valliji@bernsteinsg.com Rating Outperform Shelly Tang, CFA+1 917 344 8342shelly.tang@bernsteinsg.com Price Target ORCL325.00 USD(319.00OLD) Oracle 4Q26: good execution, increasing clarity Oracle delivered another quarter showing that they are executing well towards their FY30targets with no major hiccups or obscured data points. However, the stock swung back andforth post Q4 earnings and ended ~10% down. While Cloud revenue slightly missed (OCIbeats and SaaS slightly below), we believe the sticker shock was the CAPEX guide and the Close Date9 Jun 2026ORCL Close Price (USD)205.81Price Target (USD)325.00Upside/(Downside)58%52-Week Range345.72/134.57SPX7,266.99FYEMayDiv Yield1.0%Market Cap (USD) (M)591,919EV (USD) (M)720,462 However, these numbers have already been baked into our long term models with the$20-25B of the $90-95B FY27 Capex guide being funded by customer prepaymentsand payment management with suppliers. While there is an additional $20B capital raise(Management has not specified debt or equity), which we expected in FY28, in CY27,management, based on the current revenue ramp, expect FY28 to be the peak Capex year. In fact, Oracle is not only executing well but also communicating better, with more details,clarity and increased confidence. In addition to clarity around CAPEX and funding plans;management has assured that they could pass along rising component costs in their long-duration contracts; and explained their capacity ramping schedule in 2027 and their OCI AIgross margin trajectory (trough in FY27 and then improving). We believe this clarity, openness Investment Implications Oracle (ORCL, Outperform, PT $325):This was another strong quarter that increasesclarity around the ORCL thesis. With revenue ramping, RPO increasing, strong margins, anda solid FY27 guide increase the setup is really strong. We raised our price target to $325,as we rolled forward our estimates, but lowered our P/FE multiple from 25.5x to 24.5x, VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS Last night Oracle delivered another strong quarter and guide for Q1 and reiterated FY27 guidance, but the stock swung back-and-forth between up and down as investors digested the details, and ended ~10% down. While not a perfect quarter (see Exhibit 2) with software and Cloud revenues slightly below consensus (OCI was likely above and SaaS slightly below), the stickershock was mostly driven by the $90B to $95B in Total CAPEX guide for FY27 (cash CAPEX is ~$70B, with the rest being funded While we understand some investors are likely to focus on the size of the CAPEX number which no one can deny is huge, webelieve that the company is not only executing well but is communicating for the 2nd quarter far better, with far more detailsand an increased sense of confidence, clarity, and openness that should have a very positive impact on investor sentiment. Inaddition, one needs to put in perspective as management is already talking about when CAPEX will peak. As we have said many times it is all about the details, which only reinforce our positive attitude to the stock. Here are our 3 toptakeaways: •Business trajectory:Oracle has laid out a very specific trajectory for the business through FY30 and this quarter playedout very well in terms of delivering toward that trajectory. There were no major hiccups or obscured data points. The Cloudside of the business was a bit weaker than expected due to the SaaS business which has slowed incrementally (not much Management reiterated the guidance given at the last Financial Analyst Day. We note that some investors had beenconcerned that a new CFO would increase the conservatism used in the model and lower revenue or earnings which Capital Raise and CAPEX:Oracle provided more clarity around both the capital raise and CAPEX. For investors on thefences, the FY27 capital raise and CAPEX numbers would not help convert skeptics into believers just yet. But our view isthat these numbers were already in the long term models (see Oracle: The story is better than we thought, with better upside •The pace of the capital raise ($40B in FY27) is coming in a bit earlier than we expected, but this does not derail our longterm model. In fact, we expect that if there is any additional capital raised it with be temporary /of very short duration. •Oracle announced $90 to $95B in total CAPEX of which $20-25B is coming from client pre-payments and only $70B inOracle cash will be used. •Management, based on the current state of business (e.g. revenue ramp) expects FY28 to be the peak Capex year. Withthe current line of sight to the pipeline they expected capex to go down in FY29. •Management expects FY27 to be the trough year for AI business GM. While company GM could continue to be impactedby the revenue mix shift, but like for like AI GM will improve over time and help overa