释放卢旺达的出口潜力：消除结构性瓶颈

Unlocking Rwanda’sExport Potential: Habtamu Fuje, Irena Jankulov Suljagić, Priscille Mikebanyi, Xingyu Pu,andGabor Pula SIP/2026/042 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff asbackground documentation for periodic consultations withmember countries.It is based on the information available atthe time it was completed on November 14, 2025. This paper is 2026JUN IMF Selected Issues Paper African Department Unlocking Rwanda’s Export Potential: Removing Structural Bottlenecks Prepared byHabtamu Fuje, Irena Jankulov Suljagić, Priscille Mikebanyi,Xingyu Pu,andGabor Pula Authorized for distribution by Costas Christou IMF Selected Issues Papersare prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodicconsultations with member countries.It is based on the information available at the time it was completed ABSTRACT:Rwanda’s export base remains narrow and concentrated, limiting diversification and contributingto persistent external imbalances. Despite strong growth and substantial public investment, competitivenesschallenges—including high logistics costs, limited value addition, and weak integration into global valuechains—have constrained export performance. This Selected Issues Paper assesses the structural and RECOMMENDED CITATION:International Monetary Fund (2026):Unlocking Rwanda’s Export Potential:Removing Structural Bottlenecks–Selected Issues Paper prepared by Habtamu Fuje, Irena Jankulov Suljagić,Priscille Mikebanyi, Xingyu Pu, and Gabor Pula. IMF Country Report No.26/042; Washington, D.C. SELECTED ISSUES PAPERS Unlocking Rwanda’s ExportPotential: Removing Structural Rwanda Prepared by Habtamu Fuje, Irena Jankulov Suljagić, PriscilleMikebanyi, Xingyu Pu, and Gabor Pula1 RWANDA SELECTED ISSUES November 14,2025 ApprovedByAfrican DepartmentPreparedbyHabtamu Fuje, Irena Jankulov Suljagić, PriscilleMikebanyi, Xingyu Pu, and Gabor Pulaunder the guidanceof Albert Touna Mama. CONTENTS UNLOCKING RWANDA’S EXPORT POTENTIAL: REMOVING STRUCTURAL A. Introduction___________________________________________________________________________2B. Rwanda’s Trade Deficit: A Structural Challenge________________________________________2C. Structural Underpinnings of Rwanda’s Exports_________________________________________3D. Impediments to Export Diversification and Growth____________________________________7 BOXES 1. Determinants of African Firms’ Exports and Participation in Global Value Chains______62. Selected Trade and Logistics Reforms in Rwanda__ ___________________________________11 FIGURES1. Trade Deficit Has Been Persistently Larger Than Its Peers’______________________________4 2. World Market Shares in Goods Increased but Services Appear Stagnated_____________53. Exports Products Remain Less Diversified and Destined to Few Markets_______________84. Structural Factors: Weak Logistics and High Transport Costs__________________________105. Sustained Nominal and Real Depreciation Has Improved External Price References_______________________________________________________________________________15 UNLOCKING RWANDA’S EXPORT POTENTIAL: Summary: Rwanda’s export landscape is anchored in primary commodities and a small set of tradingpartners, prompting concerted initiatives to diversify and expand its export base. Despite progress inimproving trade openness, logistics, and institutional capacity, the country continues to experiencedifficulty boosting its net-export earnings due to high import needs and weak export services. The A.Introduction 1.Owing to structural factors, diversifying and expanding the export base remains a keychallenge for Rwanda.Export competitiveness is a critical pillar oftheRwanda’slong-term Vision2050 to achieve high-income status. This commitment is operationalized through the 2024–2029National Strategy for Transformation (NST2)with afocus on industrial development and exportpromotion, which has started toyieldsomeresults.Despite policy efforts, the country continues to 2.This selected issues paper (SIP) provides a detailed analysis of export performance andimpediments and proposes policy pathways.TheSIP will assess both non-price factors—such asproduct composition, diversification and export survival—and price competitiveness.It identifies B.Rwanda’s Trade Deficit: A Structural Challenge 3.Rwanda’s external position has been marked by persistently high trade imbalances. Current account deficitaveraged well above 10 percent of GDP and reachednearly 15 percent inrecent years, which is deeper than that ofmany Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)peers—even afteraccounting for Rwanda’s lower income level. In contrast to some East African Community (EAC) 4.The imbalance stems from weak exports and strong import demand.Rwanda’s exportbase is narrow, dominated by a few primary commodities like tea, coffee and mineral productsthatare vulnerable to globalprice volatility.Efforts to diversify into horticulture, light manufacturing, andservices are under way but remain sm