释放卢旺达的出口潜力：消除结构性瓶颈（英）

Rwanda’s export base remains narrow and concentrated, limiting diversification and contributing to persistent external imbalances. Despite strong growth and substantial public investment, competitiveness challenges—including high logistics costs, limited value addition, and weak integration into global value chains—have constrained export performance.

Rwanda’s Trade Deficit: A Structural Challenge Rwanda’s external position has been marked by persistently high trade imbalances. The current account deficit averaged well above 10 percent of GDP and reached nearly 15 percent in recent years. The imbalance stems from weak exports and strong import demand. Rwanda’s export base is narrow, dominated by a few primary commodities like tea, coffee and mineral products. Efforts to diversify into horticulture, light manufacturing, and services are under way but remain small in scale. Imports have expanded rapidly, driven by food, fuel, construction materials, and capital goods. Two structural factors explain why trade deficit has persisted despite export growth: sticky imports (more than half of the increase in exports-to-GDP since 2016 came from gold and re-exports) and limited contribution of services (services have not generated a sufficient surplus to offset goods trade deficits).

Structural Underpinnings of Rwanda’s Exports Limited diversification in export products and trading partners continues to be intrinsic features of the external sector. Rwanda’s export earnings have historically been dependent on a narrow range of traditional primary products and a limited set of trading partners. Rwanda’s export structure has also become increasingly concentrated in recent years, with gold accounting for nearly one-third of total goods exports by 2022. Non-traditional exports such as horticulture, light manufacturing, and ICT remain relatively small. A significant share of the current export basket is also linked to downstream participation in global value chains (GVC). Rwanda imports intermediate goods, refines or processes them (e.g., gold), and then re-exports, implying a high share of foreign value-added in its exports. To boost economic gains from trade, Rwanda would therefore need to enhance the composition, quality, and skill intensity of its export basket. Its current export products are characterized by low technology and skills utilization, i.e., low levels of sophistication. Primary commodities and resource-based products dominate, while medium- and high-technology products account for less than 10 percent of exports. The overall export sophistication of Rwanda has declined largely due to the rising dominance of gold. Rwanda’s products have also low trade complementarity with its neighbors’ output and low survival rates.

Impediments to Export Diversification and Growth Rwanda’s trade pattern reflects a set of logistics and infrastructure impediments that limited its ability to diversify its export base and markets. Geography and landlockedness limit the scope of export growth and diversification by complicating logistics and increasing transportation costs. Rwanda’s trade costs with its neighbors remain high despite substantial progress made up to 2010. To fully realize its potential, Rwanda must further develop the skills required by exporters, manufacturers, and service industry. Diversification into higher value-added and more complex products requires a workforce with adaptable skills and technical capacity. While Rwanda has made important gains in education, it performs below SSA and EAC neighbors in terms of human capital. Institutional quality is a key determinant of export diversification. Rwanda stands out in SSA for its strong governance indicators and ease of doing business, but challenges remain in reducing the prominence of SOEs in competitive sectors, improving SOE governance, and ensuring a level playing field for private investment.

Price Competitiveness Rwanda’s external competitiveness has been supported by exchange rate dynamics and relative price adjustments. Since 2015, the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) has depreciated steadily, reflecting policy efforts to maintain competitiveness and facilitate external adjustment. The real effective exchange rate (REER) has also trended downward, but to a lesser extent, as episodes of relatively high domestic inflation have partly offset gains from nominal depreciation. Rwanda has implemented a series of strategic trade facilitation initiatives aimed at enhancing export competitiveness, reducing trade costs, and improving the efficiency of cross-border transactions. Despite these concerted efforts, high trade costs remain a central constraint to Rwanda’s competitiveness.

Policy Implications Reforms to improve trade facilitation, strengthen the investment climate, enhance productivity, and promote private-sector-led value addition would support diversification, improve external sustainability, and strengthen resilience in an increasingly uncertain global environment. Key reforms include: improving the business environment (systematically reducing the role of the state in commercial activities, strengthening SOE governance, and ensuring a level playing field), skills development and targeted investment in ICT, capitalizing on regional integration (deeper participation in EAC and the AfCFTA), and safeguarding and enhancing price competitiveness (maintaining inflation close to the center of the target band, exchange rate flexibility, and structural reforms that address underlying vulnerabilities).