巴西的绿色铁矿石机遇：通过可再生氢释放出口潜力，重塑全球钢铁供应链

Brazil’s Green IronOpportunity Unlocking export potential through renewable hydrogento reshape global steel supply chains Authors and Acknowledgments Authors Ariane DesRosiersChathu GamageThanh HaRachel Wilmoth Authors are listed alphabetically. All authors are from RMI unless otherwise noted. Contacts Chathu Gamage,cgamage@rmi.orgThanh Ha,tha@rmi.orgRachel Wilmoth,rwilmoth@rmi.org Copyright and CitationRachel Wilmoth, Ariane DesRosiers, Thanh Ha, and Chathu Gamage,Brazil’s Green Iron Opportunity,RMI, 2025,https://rmi.org/insight/brazils-green-iron-opportunity. RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transition through sharing knowledge andinsights. We therefore allow interested parties to reference, share, and cite our work through the CreativeCommons CC BY-SA 4.0 license.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/. All images used are courtesy of iStock.com unless otherwise noted. Acknowledgments This report was written with support from Sequoia Foundation. Views reflect those of the authors and notnecessarily those of the supporting organization. About RMI Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) is an independent, nonpartisan nonprofit founded in 1982 that transformsglobal energy systems through market-driven solutions to secure a prosperous, resilient, clean energyfuture for all. In collaboration with businesses, policymakers, funders, communities, and other partners,RMI drives investment to scale clean energy solutions, reduce energy waste, and boost access toaffordable clean energy in ways that enhance security, strengthen the economy, and improve people’slivelihoods. RMI is active in over 60 countries. Table of Contents Top Four Takeaways4 Green Industrial TransformationIs Gaining Momentum in Brazil5 Brazil a Significant Contender in theEmerging Global Green Iron Market7 Win-Wins of a Green Iron Export Agenda9 Green iron exports for revitalizing domestic industry11 Making Green Iron a Reality12 Appendix14 Endnotes15 Top Four Takeaways 1Brazil’s emerging landscape of hydrogen, ammonia, and green iron projects shows promisingmomentum and an opportunity to seize global market shareAs the government works toward itsgoal of being the world’s largest hydrogen producer in 2030, multiple hydrogen hubs are emerging atkey ports, and green iron projects are advancing through early stages of planning, indicating publicand private ambitions to capture significant investment opportunities in these sectors. 2Brazil is uniquely positioned to thrive in the renewable hydrogen and green iron and steeltransformation, thanks to its natural resources. There are some near-term options for usingbiomass for partial decarbonization of iron production in Brazil at smaller scales, but hydrogen-baseddirect reduced iron (H2-DRI, referred to as green iron here) is the leading large-scale, commerciallyviable option for eliminating all iron production emissions. With renewable hydrogen (hydrogenproduced via electrolysis from renewable energy) constituting up to 50% of the final cost of steelmade from H2-DRI, Brazil’s abundant and grid-connected renewable energy resources enable globallycost-competitive production. Costs in the late 2020s are estimated to be US$423–US$521 per ton ofiron, up to 65% cheaper than other steelmaking countries. The lower range of the estimated costs iscomparable to the recent Brazilian pig iron export prices of US$405–US$450 per ton of iron. 3Developing green iron exports for Brazil is a win-win for domestic economic growth andinternational steel marketsWith the EU’s carbon pricing mechanisms, steel made in Europe fromgreen iron imported from Brazil can compete with European fossil-based blast furnace (BF) steelby 2030. For steelmaking countries that rely on imported iron ore for iron production, like Germany,imported green iron from Brazil is ~34% less costly than all-domestic H2-DRI, and importing a morefinished product still maintains 75% to 95% of domestic steel jobs. By capturing 30% of the globalgreen iron market by 2035, Brazil could attract at least US$16 billion in foreign investments, add over7,000 new jobs, bring in an additional US$2.3 billion in export revenues and US$780 millionin taxrevenues annually, and abate 15 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) globally each year. 4Further steps taken by policymakers, industrial corporations, utilities, and buyers are neededfor Brazil to capture a significant share of the global green iron marketWith H2-DRI facilitiesneeding three to five years to reach full production, projects must advance toward a final investmentdecision (FID) and start construction within the next few years for the industry to scale by the early2030s. Establishing a government-led national green iron export agenda through trade partnershipsand supportive regulations, along with de-risking mechanisms and stakeholder collaboration acrossthe supply chain, will be necessary for the timely deployment of green iron projects. Gree