纳米比亚：选定问题

NAMIBIA SELECTED ISSUES This paperonNamibiawas prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fundas background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. Itis based on the information available at the time it was completed onMay 20, 2026. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund•Publication ServicesPO Box 92780•Washington, D.C. 20090Telephone: (202) 623-7430•Fax: (202) 623-7201E-mail:publications@imf.org Web:http://www.imf.org International Monetary FundWashington, D.C. NAMIBIA SELECTED ISSUES ApprovedByXiangming Li(AFR) Prepared ByHannah Brown, Yumeng Gu, Hajime Takizawa,and Qianqian Zhang (AFR). Erick TrejoGuevara(AFR)provided administrative assistance. CONTENTS ANALYZINGSOCIAL SPENDING IN NAMIBIA_______________________________________3 A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________3B. Context, Definitions, and Fiscal Sustainability________________________________________3C. Education____________________________________________________________________________6D. Health_____________________________________________________________________________11E. Social Protection___________________________________________________________________15F. Conclusions________________________________________________________________________18 BOXES 1. Health Financing, Fragmentation, and Reform in Namibia_________________________142. Social Assistance Programs in Namibia____________________________________________16 FIGURES 1. Definition of Social Spending________________________________________________________42. Fiscal and Expenditure Trends________________________________________________________53. Expenditure Classification____________________________________________________________64. Education Expenditure_______________________________________________________________75. Population Indicators________________________________________________________________76. Education Expenditure Peer Comparison_____________________________________________77. Expenditure and Teachers per Student_______________________________________________88. Expenditure and Education Outcomes_______________________________________________99. Teachers and Education Outcomes___________________________________________________910. Education Outcomes and Proficiency_____________________________________________1011. Education Efficiency Gap__________________________________________________________1012. Obstacles to Seeking Care When Needed________________________________________1113. Government Health Expenditure__________________________________________________11 14. Health Spending Peer Comparison, Needs, and Human Capital___________________________1215. Health Outcome: Life Expectancy_________________________________________________________1316. Health Efficiency Gap_____________________________________________________________________1517. Social Assistance Spending Peer Comparison and Income Distribution___________________1618. Simulated Impact of Social Assistance Spending__________________________________________1719. Targeting of Social Pension—Peer Comparison___________________________________________18 References___________________________________________________________________________________20 POLICY TRANSMISSION THROUGH BANKING: EVIDENCE FROM NAMIBIA_____________22 A. Introduction________________________________________________________________________________22B. Context: Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Setting in Namibia____________________________23C. Empirical Strategy__________________________________________________________________________27D. Aggregate Pass-Through Estimates________________________________________________________29E. Conclusions and Policy Implications________________________________________________________30 FIGURES 1. Repo Rate and SARB Policy Rates__________________________________________________________232. Composition of Bank Loans and Growth Rate______________________________________________253. Bifurcated Transmission of Monetary Policy in Namibia____________________________________264. Banks’ Interest Rate Margin________________________________________________________________275. Pass-Through to the Aggregate Interest Rate______________________________________________29 References___________________________________________________________________________________32 ANALYZINGSOCIAL SPENDINGIN NAMIBIA1 A.Introduction 1.Social spending plays acriticalrole inaddressingNamibia’ssocio-economicchallenges,given the country’s high inequality, elevated unemployment,andstilllargedevelopment needs.Namibia is a lower-middle-income country characterized by high inequality,with a Gini index of 0.63 in 2022 (World Bank).Namibia has made important progress in expandingaccess to basic services overrecentdecades, supported by relatively high public spending oneducation, health, and social p