伯恩斯坦启动覆盖黑石数字基础设施信托公司BXDC

Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc. Nancy Wu+1 917 344 8545nancy.wu@bernsteinsg.com RatingOutperform Price Target BXDC 26.00 USD BXDC: Initiating coverage - $2B and a Blackstone dream We are initiating coverage on Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust (BXDC) with anOutperform rating and a target price of $26. Close Date5 Jun 2026BXDC Close Price (USD)21.84Price Target (USD)26.00Upside/(Downside)19%52-Week Range22.90/19.60SPX7,383.74FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)2,198EV (USD) (M)2,198 BXDC is a first-of-its-kind vehicle intended to acquire newly-built, already-leased,hyperscale-focused data centers in top-tier markets in the U.S. It is externally managed byBlackstone. The company raised $2B in a blind pool IPO on May 14 and has yet to buy its firstasset, though we anticipate the company will move quickly, potentially showing progress asearly as this quarter. We think the concept makes sense from a market demand and timing perspective—there isa massive TAM ($90B+), a clear need for developers to sell their stabilized data centers, andnot a lot of existing opportunities for public investors to participate in the space beyond DLRand EQIX. With $200B+ invested in data centers since 2018, we also believe Blackstone is acredible execution partner. The major investor pushback on the BXDC concept is on its external management structure.We have yet to identify an example of a long-term successful, externally-managed REIT,though there are plenty of horror stories. We believe BXDC has assessed its historicalprecedents, made some smart decisions, and is about the best external manager we couldimagine for this setup. That said, the 100bps (tiered) management fee is real and weighs onour valuation. Investment Implications BXDC is a hard one to price as today, it is currently just cash, a concept, and a Blackstonepromise. The company will need to quickly deploy capital, continue to raise equity, and createa strong flywheel to make the strategy work, but with plenty of TAM and proof of solid dealexecution, we believe there is ample runway.Yes, Blackstone is always going to get paidfirst, but investors can get paid along the way. We value BXDC on an NTM+1 AFFO basis with a target price of $26 (19% upside),based on a P/AFFO multiple of 22x, FY26-28 total equity issuance of $7.6B, 40% debt-to- LTV, acquisition cap rate of 6.15% (with 50bps of compression over 36 mos), and a dividendpayout ratio of 90% of AFFO. Table Of Contents PM Summary..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................2Company Overview..................................................................................................................................................................................................................4Key Strategic Questions........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 6Bernstein Forecast................................................................................................................................................................................................................18Comparables and Company Valuation...........................................................................................................................................................................21Major Risks...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................25Appendix - Market Detail....................................................................................................................................................................................................27Appendix - Developer Profiles..........................................................................................................................................................................................29 DETAILS PM SUMMARY In our opinion, five things dictate the performance of BXDC over time: 1.Is there ample market opportunity to support scale ambitions within the defined buy-box, with solid growth?We feel confident in this, estimating the market at ~$90B2.Can BXDC acquire these top-tier facilities at attractive cap rates, now and into the future (including whenaccounting for competition)?We are slightly less optimistic than management here, but do believe BXDC can likelyexecute, particularly in the near-to-mid term. We put our cap rate forecast at 6.15% relative to management’s range of6.0-6.5%.3.Can the company simultaneously raise equity and identify/execute these deals fast enough to support theinorg