工作论文系列：欧盟排放交易体系价格对就业的影响

Employment effects of EU-ETS prices Christofer Schroeder Disclaimer:This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank(ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. Abstract This paper studies the employment effects of carbon pricing under the European Union’sEmissions Trading System (EU-ETS). I refer to standard methods from the literature todefine and measure the environmental properties of jobs along two dimensions: how “green”a job is, and how polluting it is.I then leverage a series of shocks to EU-ETS pricesto estimate their dynamic impacts on employment.The panel local projections estimatesreveal that an exogenous 1% increase in EU-ETS prices leads to a roughly 0.2% decline Non-technical summary The European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) was the first, and remains thelargest, cross-border carbon market in the world. Placing a price on carbon through a cap-and-trade system, the EU-ETS is a cornerstone of the EU’s approach to meeting its climate targets.Yet, while there is evidence to suggest that the EU-ETS has been successful in mitigating This paper investigates the employment effects of carbon pricing under the ETS, focusingon its impacts on aggregate employment, as well as in greener and more polluting jobs.Toclassify jobs into these categories, this paper defines two dimensions along which each job can To provide a basic picture of how European labour markets can be characterized along thesetwo dimensions, this paper presents a set of five stylized facts. First, the vast majority of workersin Europe work in jobs that are neither very green nor very polluting.Second, how green orpolluting the average job is varies between European countries.Third, workers employed in This paper then turns to an empirical exercise studying how the price of EU-ETS certificatesaffects employment.To do so, it analyses a quarterly dataset containing microdata from theEuropean Labour Force Survey from 23 EU countries between 2007-2019, merged with a timeseries of unexpected changes in EU-ETS prices from D. K¨anzig (2025). The analysis reveals that This paper then identifies two key factors that shape the labour market’s response to EU-ETS price changes: the allocation of free emissions allowances and the stringency of employmentprotection legislation. In countries where fewer free emissions allowances are allocated relativeto actual emissions, firms face higher effective compliance costs, resulting in stronger negative The findings in this paper underscore the short-run economic consequences of carbon pricingand carry important implications for the broader policy debate surrounding the green transition. 1Introduction A large body of evidence documents the expected negative impacts of climate change. On theone hand, the physical risks associated with global warming and extreme weather events havebeen shown to be significant (Bilal and D. R. K¨anzig, 2026; Tol, 2018).These physical riskscall for policies aimed at mitigating the sources of climate change. On the other hand, climate This paper studies the impact of carbon pricing on employment in Europe.Going beyondexisting studies that estimate their impact on aggregate employment, this paper focuses on theimpacts of carbon pricing on employment in “greener” or more polluting jobs. To set the stage, I find that EU-ETS prices tend to have a negative impact on employment. In the aggregate,exogenous shocks to EU-ETS prices are estimated to have persistent, negative effects on employ- ment over the two years following impact.Estimates of the effects on employment in greenerjobs are similarly negative, yet less precise.The impacts on employment in more polluting countries with relatively low levels of employment protection exhibit significant negative impactson employment across these different types of jobs. I further find some evidence to suggest that Conceivably, carbon pricing may have different impacts on employment in different types ofjobs. In particular, carbon pricing may spur innovation in green technologies, increasing relativedemand for greener jobs, while negatively impacting pollution-intensive activity and the demandfor more polluting jobs (Martinez-Fernandez et al., 2010). I consider these impacts to fall underthe umbrella of asubstitutioneffect by which carbon prices facilitate a green transition in thelabour market. At the same time, carbon pricing is likely to have an impact on overall economic Debates surrounding the consequences of carbon pricing for labour markets often lack a clearpicture of their environmental characteristics.To provide a basic description of these for theEuropean setting, and to motivate the later empirical analysis, this paper first presents a set ofgeneral stylized facts. First, it shows that the vast majority of workers in Europe work in jobs constructed in this paper vary over time, this decrease could be due t