北美风险投资资产规模增长预测（英）2026

Forecasting the Growth ofNorth America’s VC AUM Institutional Research Group Emily ZhengSenior Research Analyst,Venture Capitalemily.zheng@pitchbook.com Macro impacts on the venture market Jacobie FullertonQuantitative Research Analystjacobie.fullerton@pitchbook.com PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on May 28, 2026 Key takeaways Contents •Growth is slowing.North American VC AUM has been forecast to reach $2 trillionby 2030. This is a 30% increase from $1.5 trillion today at a 5.4% annualized rate, asignificant deceleration from the prior decade. Yet this is a positive developmentfor the asset class, as the new normal should better reflect what VC was built todeliver: returns grounded in disciplined underwriting and tangible value creationrather than relying on macro tailwinds and a handful of marquee names. Key takeaways1All eggs in one basket: How concentrationwill determine VC’s growth2References6 •The spread between our upside and downside cases—$2.6 trillion and $1.6 trillion,respectively—reflects unprecedented concentration across venture.In Q1, 42.5%of US deal count involved AI startups, 73.1% of US capital went to five firms, andnearly half of North American AUM was based on the West Coast. When the marketis this narrow, small shocks produce large outcomes. •2026’s mega-IPOs are the most consequential variable for projected growth.SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic together could raise as much as all US VC-backedIPOs combined over the past decade. Successful post-listing performance wouldrestore LP confidence and reopen the exit window, while poor public receptionwould extend the freeze. •We have not seen a moment as critical or consequential for VC in recent history.Ina normal year, three listings would not determine the fate of the entire venture assetclass, but in 2026, they might. All eggs in one basket: How concentration will determineVC’s growth VC’s growth over the next five years depends heavily on one variable: AI. Our baselineforecast for North American VC AUM growth projects an increase from $1.5 trillion atthe end of 2025 to $2 trillion in 2030, which is only a modest 30% rise over five yearsat a CAGR of 5.4%. Although AUM increased 78.3% from 2020 to 2025, most of thatgrowth was front-loaded in 2021, when AUM surged from $823 billion to $1.3 trillion in asingle year. Since then, the venture market has plateaued as distributions, dealmaking,and fundraising slowed sharply. Net cash flows to LPs have been negative every yearsince 2022. Many startups have had to contend with lower valuation growth or evenmarkdowns to raise new rounds as company pricing is updated to better reflect businessfundamentals rather than pandemic-era peaks. The median non-AI US VCvaluation step-upis currently 1.6x, compared to 2x in 2021. As a result, 2025’s AUM is only 15% higherthan 2021’s, and we expect to see a more muted rate of growth over the next five years. Positive tailwinds across all scenarios include the rise ofventure secondaries, whichhave matured into a mainstream liquidity tool, generating $112.2 billion in the US overthe last four quarters through Q1 2026. The strategy gained rapid adoption becausethe traditional exit market failed to deliver. Like the rest of venture, secondary tradesare extremely concentrated, with the top 20 names accounting for 81.1% of secondarytrading value on Hiive.1Continued strong growth in secondaries would be a meaningfulupside catalyst to our AUM forecast, although this hinges on increased primarydealmaking and exit activity. Primary rounds and exits provide fresh pricing signals thatincrease transparency in secondary deals, which typically lack information rights, andcould therefore help expand the universe of actively traded secondary names as primaryactivity occurs more frequently. Another source of potential growth is evergreen VCAUM, which we estimate will expand from $81 billion in 2025 to $114 billion by 2030.However, unlike PE or private credit, VC’s return profile and liquidity characteristicsmake it a poor fit for semiliquid wrappers at scale, limiting its overall contribution toventure AUM. The spread between our upside and downside scenarios—$2.6 trillion and $1.6 trillion,respectively—is notably wide, as venture is experiencing unprecedented concentrationacross the entire ecosystem, leading to high variability in outcomes. The projectionof the venture market’s value is increasingly dependent on a narrow cohort of AIstartups, top GPs, and US-based firms. AI is a major driver, as OpenAI’s $122 billionround alone accounted for 45.7% of Q1’s US deal value. Plus, 42.5% of US deal countinvolved an AI startup in Q1, a significant increase from 14.6% a decade ago. Thisconcentration extends to fundraising: 73.1% of US capital committed in Q1 went tojust five VC firms, as emerging