2026年第一季度美国风险投资中学市场观察（英）2026

Institutional Research Group Emily ZhengSenior Research Analyst,Venture Capital A deep dive into venture secondaries Caleb WilkinsData Analyst PitchBook is a Morningstar company providing the most comprehensive, mostaccurate, and hard-to-find data for professionals doing business in the private markets. pbinstitutionalresearch@pitchbook.com Published on May 8, 2026 Key takeaways Contents Key takeaways •The US venture secondary market reached an annualized value of $112.2 billion, Mega-IPOs will uproot the venturesecondary market Private markets for everyone? •Concentration is the market’s defining vulnerability. The top 20 names account for81.1% of secondary trading value on Hiive, and 75% of SPVs with carry on Caplightare concentrated in just five names. The secondary market’s headline growth was Appendix: Methodology for directsecondaries market sizing References •Mega-IPOs will leave a vacancy unlike anything the secondary market hasexperienced. Combined, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will absorb roughly asmuch capital as all US VC-backed IPOs raised over the past decade. When these •Strong listings will validate AI valuations, unlock the broader IPO pipeline, andaccelerate price discovery for the next tier of secondary names, while weak •Venture access is being democratized through four structural innovations:accelerating tender offer cadences; OpenAI’s integration of retail access in itslatest primary round; NYSE-listed venture funds with no accreditation requirements Please refer to theappendixfor the fullmethodology behind our market sizing.Secondary data providers includeAugment, Caplight, Hiive, Nasdaq •In 2026, the secondary market is no longer proving relevance but rather buildinginfrastructure. The defining question will be whether the market can redistribute Mega-IPOs will uproot the venture secondary market The US venture secondary market has grown to an annualized value of $112.2 billion, ascale that would have seemed implausible merely a decade ago. We estimate that $40billion to $155.2 billion in direct secondaries was traded from Q2 2025 to Q1 2026. Themidpoint of $97.6 billion, combined with our GP-led estimate of $14.6 billion, yields a Our estimated range is deliberately wide, as the gap reflects the approximatecontributions of mega-IPO candidates SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic to secondarymarket activity over the past year. Secondary trades across providers are seeing similar concentration trends. On Hiive, the top 20 startups accounted for 81.1% ofsecondary trading value in Q1 2026, with the top five alone representing 44.6%.1Caplight data shows that 75% of special purpose vehicles (SPVs) with carry areconcentrated in just five names—SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, and Anduril—and82.5% of trading volume over the last 12 months was concentrated in data, AI, or The magnitude of these mega-IPOscannot be overstated. Combined, all US VC-backed public listings since 2015 created approximately $1.44 trillion in exit value. Asingle SpaceX listing would exceed that entire decadelong figure. Plus, SpaceX alone When these companies list, their secondary trading activity will migrate to the publicmarkets. These IPOs will inevitably leave a large vacancy in the market, because capitalcannot be recycled immediately. Not only are there lockup periods, but LPs acrossventure have had contributions outweigh distributions for four consecutive years. The The speed and enthusiasm of venture secondary investing will also hinge largely onthe post-IPO performance of SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic. Strong pricing wouldvalidate the enormous private valuations that have accumulated in late-stage venture,particularly in AI. The resulting boost to the IPO pipeline would improve secondaryprice discovery and enlarge the universe of actively traded names. On Caplight, the As the market waits for these mega-IPOs, the next tier of candidates is already takingshape. The top 20 most valuable actively traded secondary names today had theirfirst venture funding rounds a median of 8.5 years ago, meaning they are mature,late-stage businesses with substantial value and longtime shareholders. This cohortincludes names like Databricks, Stripe, and Figure AI, and spans high-demand sectors The near-term secondary market will contract in headline volume when the mega-IPO candidates go public. How deeply it contracts and how quickly it recovers willdepend on the IPOs' reception, the pace of capital recycling, and whether the nexttier of secondary names can maintain the deal cadence left by the departing cohort. Private markets for everyone? The circle of buyers and sellers in the venture secondary market is wideningmeaningfully in early 2026, setting the stage for greater maturation and expansion inthe coming years. Venture secondaries gained Wall Street legitimacy in late 2025 withmajor acquisitions by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Charles Schwab. Thesebanks are heavily investing in access to the