巴哈马：债务投资增长和自然灾害技术援助项目

THE BAHAMAS Technical Assistance Project on Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters (DIGNAD) June2026 Prepared ByKarim Barhoumi, Ha Nguyen, Tolga Tiryaki Authoring Department:Institute for Capacity Development High-Level Summary Technical Assistance ReportInstitute for Capacity Development (ICD) The Bahamas:Technical Assistance Project on Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters(DIGNAD) Prepared by Karim Barhoumi, Ha Nguyen, Tolga Tiryaki TheHigh-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reportseries provides high-level summaries of theassistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives,findings, and recommendations. ABSTRACT: The technical assistance (TA) scoping mission to Nassau (November 2025) aimed toestablish a robust framework for quantifying the macroeconomic impacts of climate-related naturaldisaster risks in The Bahamas. At the request of the Central Bank of The Bahamas (CBoB), the projectfocuses on operationalizing the DIGNAD model to assess trade-offs between debt financed resilientinfrastructure, fiscal sustainability, and economic growth. The mission evaluated the authorities' readinessto incorporate these risks into medium-term projections and provided hands-on training on DIGNAD. Keyoutcomes include upgrading the forecasting toolkit to support evidence-based policy design and climate-resilience planning. DISCLAIMER Thecontents of this report constitute ahigh-levelsummary of technicaladvice providedby the staffof the International Monetary Fund(IMF) tothe authorities ofThe Bahamas(the“CD recipient”) inresponsetotheir requestforcapacitydevelopment(CD).UnlesstheCDrecipientspecificallyobjectswithin30businessdays of its transmittal, the IMF will publish this high-level summary on IMF.org(seeStaff Operational Guidanceon the Dissemination of Capacity Development Information). BackgroundInformation Thegeographic location andnarrow economic base of The Bahamascreatesignificant structuralexposure to frequent and costly climate-related natural disaster risks.The country is highlydependent on tourism and financial services, which together account for approximately85 percent ofGDP. These risks are particularly acute; over the past decade, natural disasters have caused annualdamages averaging3.2 percent of GDP, with projectionssuggesting these costs could increase by over30 percent under higher global warming scenarios(The Bahamas: 2024 Article IV Staff Report). Addressing these vulnerabilities requires a significant scaling up of climate-resilientinfrastructure investment supported by robust analytical frameworks.Meeting resilience investmentneeds is estimated to require an additional1.8 percent of GDP annuallyin capital spending through2030, which is well above current allocations(The Bahamas: 2024 Article IV StaffReport). Strengthening the analytical framework for climate-resilientmacroeconomicpolicy remains a toppriority for the Bahamian authorities.In June 2025, the CBoB formally requested TA to develop andoperationalize theDIGNAD model—a framework specifically designed for small economies prone tonatural disasters—to assess the trade-offs between debt-financed infrastructure, fiscal sustainability, andgrowth resilience. ScopingMissionKeyFindings The missionidentifiedopportunitiesto further aligndisaster-related macroeconomic modeling,alongsidestrengthening coordination frameworksand addressingareasfordataenhancement.There is an opportunity to further strengthen the analytical framework by developing an integratedmacroeconomic model that systematically incorporates climate-related natural disaster risks intoprojections and policy analysis. Thisincludesthe evaluation of policy trade-offs between standard andresilient infrastructure investment.Currently, while the CBoB and the Ministry of Finance (MoF) are theprimary actors, there isa potential for more structured coordination mechanismfor disaster-relatedmacroeconomic analysis,ascollaboration during forecasting rounds remains largely informal.Furthermore, existing forecasting toolkits, including the CBoB'sComprehensive Adaptive ExpectationsModel (CAEM),developedbya recent Technical Assistance project with the Institute for CapacityDevelopment (ICD),could be further augmented to includedisaster shocks, specific parameter calibrationfor resilience, or explicit debt-investment-growth linkages. Strategic data integration and technical capacity building are essential tofurther developingcurrent disaster risk modeling.Specific findings regarding the technical and data environment include: •Historical Data Limitationsand systematic use of analysis:Post-disaster damageassessments are conducted by the Disaster Risk Management Authorityin collaboration withinternational organizations,andthese resultsshould besystematically incorporated into forward-looking models to evaluate macroeconomic consequences. •Sectoral Data Gaps:Tourism-sector inputs are primarily trend-based andcouldexplicitly modelpo