巴哈马：技术援助报告-债务投资增长和自然灾害技术援助项目（DIGNAD）

THE BAHAMAS Technical Assistance Project on Debt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters(DIGNAD) April2026 Prepared byKarim Barhoumi,Ha Nguyen,TolgaTiryaki Authoring Department: Institute for Capacity Development DISCLAIMER The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the InternationalMonetary Fund to the authorities of theCentral Bank ofTheBahamas(the "CD recipient") in response totheir request for technical assistance. Unless the CD recipient specifically objects to such disclosure, thisdocument (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be disclosed by the IMF to the IMF ExecutiveDirectorforthe Bahamas, to other IMF Executive Directors and members of their staff, as well as to otheragencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, and upon their request, to World Bank staff, and othertechnical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest(seeStaff Operational Guidance on theDissemination of Capacity Development Information).Publication or Disclosure of this report (in whole orin part) to parties outside the IMF other than agencies or instrumentalities of the CD recipient, World Bankstaff, other technical assistance providers and donors with legitimate interest shall require the explicitconsent of the CD recipient and the IMF’s ICD department. The analysis and policy considerations expressed in this report are those of the IMF’s Institute forCapacity Development (ICD) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Boardor Management. TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS_____________________________________________________________3 PREFACE_________________________________________________________________________________________4 SUMMARY_______________________________________________________________________________________5 SECTION I. BACKGROUND INFORMATION_____________________________________________________6 A. The Bahamas’ Macroeconomicl Context________________________________________________________6B. The Authorities’ Technical Assistance Request__________________________________________________7 SECTION II. SCOPING MISSION FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS______________________________8 A.Introduction8B.Institutional setup_____________________________________________________________________________8C.The TA Beneficiary_____________________________________________________________________________9Material resourcesand Software_________________________________________________________10Existing Disaster-Related Tools and Practices____________________________________________10 Appendix A: Preliminary Action Plan_____________________________________________________________17Appendix B: The Results Framework_____________________________________________________________17Appendix C: Agenda_____________________________________________________________________________20Appendix D: List of Training Participants_________________________________________________________20 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CAEMComprehensive Adaptive Expectations ModelCBoBCentral Bank of The BahamasCDCapacity DevelopmentDIGDebt-Investment-GrowthDIGNADDebt-Investment-Growth and Natural DisastersDRMDisaster Risk ManagementDSGEDynamic Stochastic General EquilibriumGDPGross Domestic ProductICDInstitute for Capacity DevelopmentIMFInternational Monetary FundMoFMinistry of FinanceTATechnical Assistance PREFACE This report marks the beginning of a capacity development(CD)project betweenthe Institute for CapacityDevelopment (ICD) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)and the authorities of The Bahamas.Initiated at the request of the Central Bank of The Bahamas(CBoB), the project aims to operationalizethe use of theDebt-Investment-Growth and Natural Disasters(DIGNAD)model to assess themacroeconomicand sectoral impacts of natural disasters and to evaluate policy responses, includingtrade-offs betweenadaptation and regular public investment, as well as broader policy reforms. The report’s objectives are twofold: first, to convey to the authorities the mission team’s assessment ofthe current toolkit, capacity, and institutional mechanisms for analyzing the macroeconomicimpacts ofnatural disasters; and second, to record the action plan agreed with the authorities during the mission,which will guide the delivery of technical assistance(TA)and set out work commitments on both theFund’s and the authorities’ sides. AscopingTAmission was conducted in Nassau, The Bahamas, from November 17 to 21, 2025. Themission team comprised Mr. Karim Barhoumi (mission chief), Mr. Ha Nguyen (senior economist), and Mr.Tolga Tiryaki (senior economist). The team met with Mr. John A. Rolle (Governor of theCBoB), Mr. Allan S. Wright (Head of the ResearchDepartment), and the core team from theCBoBand the Ministry of Finance(MoF)involved inmacroeconomic forecasting and policy formulation. The mission also delivered a two-day hands-ontraining workshop on the DIGNAD modeltothe core team.