您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [汇丰前海证券]:维持买入:上调三年增长展望,受加速的CMO和IP业务收入驱动 - 发现报告

维持买入:上调三年增长展望,受加速的CMO和IP业务收入驱动

2026-06-03 汇丰前海证券 睿扬
报告封面

Pharmaceuticals byasolidramp-upofmanufacturing-stagerevenue+ImprovedshareholderreturnswithUsD4o0msharebuyback 45.8044.00 released a business update on 31 May, with 69 newly added integrated projects as ofthe end of April; the company reaffirmed its 13-17% (16-20% excluding FX impact)revenue growth guidance for 2026, and guided to a 20% revenue CAGR for the nextthreeyears,driven bya30% revenue CAGRof the CMO (manufacturing)businessand CRoO IP-based revenue.We are turning more optimistic onWuXi Bio's growthprospects followingthe business update and raise our 2027-28e revenue estimatesby 8-17% to factor in the solid growth of the company's manufacturing business.Supported by the strong growth momentum, WuXi Bio's share price has been upc12% YTD (HSI up c2% YTD), and the shares currently trade at c1 SD below thehistorical average PElevel, which we think is undervalued.WuXi Bio announced on26MayaUsD400mshare repurchaseprogrammetopayback shareholders. Estimate changes: We raise our 2027-28e adjusted NP estimates by 8-18% afterraising our2027-28e revenue estimates by8-17%to reflect the strong growthmomentumof the company's manufacturing business (Phase Ill and commercial-stage projects)supportedbynewbiologics licenceapplication (BLA)approvals andexpectedrevenueof USD100meach from thecompany'stop3manufacturingprojects in2026e.Ourthe margin expansion trend from 2026e to 2028e, driven by the increasing utilisationof overseas capacity and the strong growth momentum of high-margin IP-basedrevenue.Overall,weestimatea19.3%2025-28eadjustedNPCAGR Linda Shu*, PhD (Reg. No. S1700522120001)Head of China Healthcare ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedlinda.y.l.shu@hsbcqh.com.cn+8675588983246 Maintain Buy; raise target price to HKD45.80 (from HKD44.00): We use a DCFmodel to reflect WuXi Bio's long-term growth visibility.After our estimate estimates,we derive a target price of HKD45.80 (from HKD44.00).Our key assumptions includea WACC of 9.0% (unchanged), with a risk-free rate of 4.25%, a market risk premiumof 4.25%, a beta of 1.42, and an after-tax cost of debt of 5.3% (all unchanged), and aterminal growth rate of 3.5% (unchanged).Our target price implies c30% upside fromthe current share price; accordingly,we maintain our Buy rating on the stock.We seethe delivery of strong revenue growth from the company's manufacturing business asa keypotential share price catalyst.Seepage 5 forkey downside risks. OliverWang* (Reg.No.S1700523100003)Analyst, China Healthcare ResearchHSBC Qianhai Securities Limitedoliver.h.y.wang@hsbcqh.com.cn+862150662058 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/qualifed pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBCFunding theFutureSurvey Sentiment, Al and Private Credit Click to view Issuer of report: HSBC Qianhai Securities Limited This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Qianhai Securities at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Source: HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: Priced at close of 02 Jun 2026 company's manufacturing business (Phase Ill and commercial-stage projects), driven by new BLAapprovals and expected revenue of USD100m each from the company's top 3 manufacturingprojects in 2026e.Our 2026-28e GPM and expense ratio estimates are largely unchanged, andwe extend the margin expansion trend from 2026e to 2028e, driven by the increasing utilisation ofoverseas capacity and the strong growth momentum of high-margin IP-based revenue. As such,we raise our 2027-28e adjusted NP estimates by 8-18%.Overall, we estimate a 20.3% and 19.3% Broken down by project, we continue to expect WuXi Bio's manufacturing business (Phase IllIand commercial projects)to be the company's main growth drivers,and we estimate a 30%2025-28e revenue CAGR, where we estimate that the proportion to total revenue will increaseto 55% in 2028e. For pre-IND and post-IND (Phase I & Phase Il) projects, we estimate a 12%and 10% 2025-28e revenue CAGR, respectively. Broken down by geography, we estimate a22%2025-28erevenue CAGRfor itsNorthAmerica business,followed bya 15% and11%CAGR for its Europe and China business, respectively. as of the end of April, and newly added bi-specific and multi-specific projects grew by over 50%y-o-y in 4M26 (according to the company's announcement). WuXi Bio's backlog for the nextthree years grew to USD4.53bn at the end of 2025, up from USD3.65bn at the end of 2024. Valuationand risks We use a DCF model to reflect WuXi Bio's long-term growth visibility. After our estimatechanges, we derive a target price of HKD45.80 (from HKD44.00).Our key assumptions include aWACC of 9.0% (unchanged), with a risk-free rate of 4.25%,a market risk premium of 4.25%, a3.5% (unchanged). Our target price implies c30% upside from the current share price;accordingly,we maintain our Buy rating on the stock. Potential shareprice catalysts Delivery of solid growth from the