伯恩斯坦能源：95天过去了，为何油价没有进一步上涨？

Bernstein Energy: 95 days in. Why have oil prices not risen more? ~15MMbbls/d of supply still offline andyet to normalize.This equates to~1.37bnbarrels of cumulative disruption since March1,withtanker activity stillwell below pre-conflict levels, highlighting the persistence of logistical and security constraints. +85221232648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com +85221232615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com +85221232612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com China has absorbeda disproportionate share of the oil shock.While Asia imports aredown ~7MMbls/d, China alone accounts for roughly 6MMbbls/d of the decline, or around40% y o y. In contrast, flows into the rest of Asia including Japan, South Korea, India andhasfreedup cargoes andeased competition forsupply. China's abilityto absorb the disruption has been driven by its inventory buffer. that the adjustment is being managed through declining stockpiles.April already showedearly signs of inventory draws, and this trend is likely to extend in the coming months. Withanestimated~1.5bnbblsofcombinedcommercialand SPRinventories,China hasthecapacityto sustain this adjustmentfor an extended period,potentially equivalent to around200 days of cover. Atthecurrentpaceof~1MMbbls/dofdrawdowninOECDcommercialinventories,oil prices could move toward $120/bblor higher in 3Q.OECD inventories remain akeyanchorforprice,witha strong historical correlation between stock levels andoil prices.At~2,740MMbbls today, inventories are broadly consistent with current price levels. However,sustaineddrawsat 1MMbls/dwouldpushstockstowardthelower endofthehistoricalstocklevelswithinthenext2-3months.Basedonpastrelationships,thiswouldlikelydriveoil pricestoward $120/bbl or higher in3Q. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS the supply disruption, this is a huge surprise to most oil watchers in the market, including ourselves. While the duration of theconflict is unknowable, there is an expectation in the market that it could end at any point. But more importantly,observableinventory draws havenotbeen nearlyas large as expected.Sincethe start ofthe conflict,we have lost almost 1.4bn bbls(14.9MMbls/d)from the market. Observable OECD inventories however, have only declined by 97MMblsd, which is equivalentto a loss of 1.1MMbls/d. Where did the other 13.8MMbls/d go? Some of this is accounted for by SPR draws, reduction of oilon water and increased oil exports mainly from the Americas. But the vast majority, 7.4MMbls/d, has been transmitted throughlower exports into Asia.From tanker data wetrack,increasingly China is taking the strain,with imports down 40% or5MMbls/d. China's reduction in crude and product purchases havehelped other Asian countries increase imports ofoil. For example,Taiwaneseoil importshaveincreasedby4oO%sincethestartoftheconflict.Chinahasbeenabletodothisbyrunningdownsome 1.4-1.5bn bbl of storage. China could continueto do this for thenext 100 ormaybe 200 days on the expectation thatthewarwillcometoanendbeforetheMid-termelections.Putanotherway,ChinaisprovidingashockabsorbertothemarketAssumingthedrawdown inOCED inventories continues at 1MMbls/dthen,US$120/bblis likelyby3Q.If Chinacomesbackasa buyerto compete for crude cargoes however, inventorydraws could accelerate elsewhereleading to amore violentupswing The conflicthas severelydisrupted liquids flowsthroughthe Straitof Hormuz and the RedSea.FromMarch1to May31,flows were reduced by 14.9MMbbls/d, equivalent to roughly 1.37bn barrels of lost supply.This has created cascading effects acrosstheregion:Gulf exportbarrels have been displaced,Asian imports haveweakenedmaterially,floating storagehas been drawndown,and the disruption has amplified pressure on routes already constrained by Red Sea insecurity. has been partially offset by 679MMbbls lower Asian imports, a 171MMbbls decline in oil-on-water, a 97MMbbls draw inOECDcommercialinventories,a 50MMbblsreduction in US SPR,anda 25OMMbbls increase in Americas supply.This leavesa balancing itemof123MMbbls, or1.3MMbbls/d.Themost likelysources of this residualarelower sanctioned oil availability,unobserveddrawsinnon-OECD inventoriessuchas Chinaandex-USSPRdrawdowns. The Strait of Hormuz was effectively disrupted at the start of March following the late-February escalation,andthe impactonregionalflows was immediate.Tankermovementsfell sharply in earlyMarchandremainedsuppressedthroughtheperiod,withnormalizationonlygradual and incomplete even intolateMay,highlightingthepersistenceoflogisticalandsecurityconstraints. ASIAOILIMPORTSThelargest adjustment has come through lower Asian imports.Asian oil imports aredown 679MMbbls over theperiod, or around7.4MMbbls/d, implying Asia has absorbedthe majority of the physical dislocation as end-markets draw on inventoriesand ration demand. Imports in Asia fellsharply as oil tankers from the Gulf stopped arriving sincethe start of April. Average imports to Asia droppedby an average of 5.5MMbls/d y-o-y since March 1st, but the rate of decline has accelerated to 6MMbls/d y-o-y over the