您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [环球富盛理财]:受益于AI落地浪潮和Token商业化,大模型业务打开长期成长空间 - 发现报告

受益于AI落地浪潮和Token商业化,大模型业务打开长期成长空间

2026-06-04 庄怀超 环球富盛理财 郭生根
报告封面

受益于AI落地浪潮和Token商业化,大模型业务打开长期成长空间 Driven by boom in industrial AI deployment and commercialization of tokens& Large-model business unlocks long-term growth potential 最新动态 ➢AI落地浪潮叠加Token商业化,大模型业务打开长期成长空间。AI产业重心由模型参数比拼转向企业端落地服务,全行业景气度持续上行,为公司打开广阔增量市场。国内“AI+”扶持政策持续落地,能源、轨道交通、工业制造等传统行业智能化改造需求集中爆发,存量老客户深挖集团级全链路智能化项目、新增优质客户同步快速拓展。伴随企业智能体规模化部署落地,大型集团项目日均Token消耗可达数亿量级,Token付费模式逐步成熟,成长为可持续的长期现金流来源。公司大模型业务处于高速扩张起步阶段,已有上百家大中型企业陆续抛出定制落地需求,大模型业务收入保持高速攀升,产品落地成熟后毛利率逐年抬升,成为驱动公司中长期业绩持续上行的核心引擎。 动向解读 ➢十年稳步迭代成长,稳居国内企业级AI落地优质赛道前列。公司2015年在深圳创立,2017年推出国内首创AI视觉算法商城,2019年落地算法训练与推理两大核心平台,2021年总部落地青岛,2024年正式切入企业大模型定制落地业务,2026年登陆港交所特专科技板块完成上市。依托独创算法商城商业模式,公司稳居国内新兴企业级计算机视觉解决方案市场第八位,同时位列软件属性服务商行业第三名,是国内少有的兼具平台生态与项目落地能力的AI厂商。历经十年深耕,累计落地6000余个产业化项目,服务超3000家政企客户,业务落地覆盖能源、轨交、制造、环保等超百个细分行业,产品复购率突破80%,在政企AI落地细分赛道形成扎实的行业地位与市场口碑。 ➢技术生态落地三位一体,公司构筑难以逾越的行业壁垒。公司凭借自研大模型、全链路平台、规模化项目落地打造独有竞争护城河。自研星际多模态视觉语言大模型分0.5B轻量、4B主力、32B旗舰三大版本,全面适配云端、边缘、端侧各类硬件,依托十亿级实景行业数据集与细粒度对齐、人类反馈强化学习等自研技术大幅减少模型幻觉,实测核心数据集关键指标较同行基准提升127%。依托极栈训推一体化AI中台、极星推理平台以及储备1500余款算法的算法商城,生态化开发模式大幅压缩项目交付周期,依靠数十万外部开发者共建生态,有效降低定制化开发成本。公司落地青岛地铁5.2亿元轨交垂域大模型大额标杆项目,深度绑定中石油、中国华电、一汽大众、光大环保各领域龙头,形成项目定制、年度运维授权、Token计费、平台科研服务多元化收入结构,行业核心竞争力持续稳固。 ➢营收毛利稳步上行。公司财务经营质量持续向好,2022至2025年营业收入从1.02亿元稳步攀升至2.92亿元,多年复合增速超40%,整体毛利率从30.6%稳步提升至41.5%。公司精细化管控各项运营开支,销售费用率逐年稳步回落,资源持续向高潜力大模型研发倾斜。标准化视觉产品长期保持70%以上高毛利水平,新拓展的大模型业务毛利率从2024年22.8%提升至2025年36.6%,产品收入结构持续优化。随着后续大模型标杆订单持续落地、成熟解决方案跨行业规模化复制,公司整体营收与盈利水平将保持长期稳步抬升的向好态势。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们预测公司2026-2028年营业收入分别为4.00、5.60和8.31亿元,参考同行业公司,给予公司2026年25倍PS,按照港元兑人民币0.88汇率计算,对应目标价158.32港元,首次覆盖给予“买入”评级。 风险提示 ➢商业模式风险、行业竞争风险、客户与业务结构风险。 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超,拥有北京航空航天大学本科学位和香港大学金融学硕士学位。该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部,团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名,该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构,成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过700篇,覆盖港股AI、半导体、软件、科技行业标的如下:卓越睿新、伟仕佳杰、晶门半导体、珩湾科技、中国软件国际、百望股份、百富环球、赛晶科技、有赞、汇通达网络、博雅互动、IGG、网龙、极视角、华沿机器人等。 微信:zhuangcharles邮箱:charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话:(852) 97487114; (86) 18801353537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officer of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any juris