核心观点: 韩国银行 (BOK) 发布了2026年3月的货币政策报告,评估了全球和韩国的经济金融发展,并展望了未来的货币政策方向。
全球经济发展: 尽管受到美国关税政策的影响,全球经济增长好于预期,这得益于主要经济体的AI投资扩大和扩张性财政政策。主要经济体的通胀普遍有所缓解,但中东地区的冲突显著增加了未来全球增长和通胀路径的不确定性。
韩国经济发展: 韩国经济持续改善,消费和出口复苏是主要驱动力。就业人数持续增加,主要由服务业带动。预计2026年经济增长率为2%,显著高于去年的1%。通胀接近2%目标水平,核心通胀稳定在2%左右。家庭贷款增长放缓,房地产市场价格涨幅有所放缓。
货币政策: BOK自去年下半年以来将基准利率维持在2.50%,密切监测通胀和增长趋势,以及金融稳定条件。BOK利用多种政策工具确保金融市场和外汇市场的稳定,并促进信贷的顺畅流动。未来,BOK将继续实施货币政策,将消费者价格通胀稳定在2%的目标水平,同时监测经济增长,并关注金融稳定。
风险因素: 中东局势、主要经济体的政策不确定性、AI产业担忧、房地产市场风险和弱势部门信用风险是未来需要关注的主要风险因素。
关键数据: 全球经济增长预期为3.4%(2025年),3.2%(2026年),3.3%(2027年);韩国经济增长预期为2%(2026年);全球通胀预期为2.6%(2026年);韩国通胀预期为2.5-2.6%。
研究结论: 预计全球经济增长和金融市场将继续受到中东局势的影响。主要经济体的增长、通胀和财政政策,以及AI投资将继续成为不确定性的来源。BOK将继续实施货币政策,将消费者价格通胀稳定在2%的目标水平,同时监测经济增长,并关注金融稳定。
2026. 3
Monetary Policy Report
2026. 3
The Bank of Korea sets and implements its monetary and credit policies in order to contribute to the sounddevelopment of the national economy by pursuing price stability, and in theprocess pays attention to financialstability as well.
The Bank of Korea Act stipulates that the Bank of Korea, to fulfill its accountability corresponding to thesemandates, should compile at least twice each year a report on the implementation of its monetary and creditpolicies.
In line with this the Bank of Korea prepares the Monetary Policy Report, containing the details of andbackgrounds to its monetary policy decisions, the future monetary policy directions, etc., two times per year,and submits it to the National Assembly.
ThisMarch2026Monetary Policy Report has been drawn up to cover the time period from after the MonetaryPolicy Board meeting for monetary policy decision-making inAugust2025 through the date of the MonetaryPolicy Board meeting for monetary policy decision-making inFebruary2026.
We sincerely hope that this Monetary Policy Report will be of help in ensuring that the public well understandsthe Bank of Korea’s monetary policy operations, and forms rational expectations concerning the future policydirections.
Article 96 (Reporting to National Assembly)
(1) The Bank of Korea shall prepare an assessment report on progress in implementing monetaryand credit policies and macro-financial stability conditions at least twice every year andsubmitit to the National Assembly.
(2) The Governor shall attend a meeting and answer questions, when the National Assembly orany of its committees requests him/her to attend the meeting in connection with the reportsubmitted pursuant toparagraph (1).
This Monetary Policy Report is published in accordance with theprovision of Article 96 of the Bank of Korea Act, and upon thedeliberation and resolution of the Monetary Policy Board.
Governor
Bankof Korea
Monetary Policy Board
ChairmanRhee, Chang YongMemberShin, Sung HwanMemberChang, YongsungMemberRyoo, SangdaiMemberHwang, KunilMemberKim, Jong HwaMemberLee, Soohyung
General Principles of Monetary PolicyOperation
1. (Policy Objectives)The Bank of Korea Act stipulatesthatthe goal of monetary policyis to“contribute tothe sound development of the national economyby pursuing price stability” and that the Bank of Korea(hereinafter “the Bank”)“shall payattention to financial stability in carrying out its monetaryand creditpolicies.” In order to enhance the transparency, predictability, and effectiveness of monetary policy, theBank will carry out its task by setting specific targets and objectives in accordance with this goal.
2.(Inflation Targeting) The Bank maintains a flexible inflation targeting system to effectively achieve pricestability, which is the primary objective of monetary policy. The inflation target is currently set at 2%interms of consumer price inflation (year-on-year).
2.1.(Medium-Term Horizon)Since consumer price inflation is affected not only by monetary policy, butalso by various other factors at home and abroad, the inflation target is meant to be achieved overamedium-term horizon, in consideration of price changes owing to transitory and irregular factors and oflags in monetary policy transmission.
2.2.(Forward-Looking Operations)The Bank conducts its monetary policy in a forward-looking mannerto ensurethat inflation convergestothe target level over the medium-term,whilethelikelihoodofinflationconvergingtothe target is assessed comprehensivelyby taking into accountinflation and growthoutlooks, as well as their uncertainties and risks, and the degree of anchoring of inflation expectations.In addition, the Banksymmetricallyconsidersthe risks of inflation remaining persistently above or belowthe target.
2.3.(Flexible Operations)The Bankoperates itsinflation targeting systemflexiblyto supportstablegrowthof the real economy while paying attention to financial stabilityto the extent that this does not hinderattaining the inflation target over the medium-term.
3.(Consideration of Financial Stability)Inachieving price stability over the medium-term,the Bank payscareful attention to financial stability conditions.
3.1.(Efforts to Stabilize the Financialand Foreign ExchangeMarkets)The Bank makes efforts tostabilize the financialand foreign exchangemarketsand to restore the financial intermediary function,given that monetary policy transmission channelsare constrainedand macroeconomic stabilityisundermined in the event of financialinstability.
3.2.(Attention to Financial Imbalances)As persistent financial imbalances, such as the buildup of debtandovervaluation of asset prices, couldultimatelyundermine macroeconomic stability, the Bank pays dueattention toensure thatmonetary policy does not lead to buildup offinancial imbalances.
3.3. (Harmony with Macroprudential Policy)Since there are limits to maintaining financial stability solelythrough monetary po