VNET集团（VNET US）：我们在中国数据中心行业的首选

IT Services Buy:Our toppick inthe China DC sector HSBCe solid2026e/2027eadj.EBITDAgrowthof 24%/23% 15.1014.50SHARE PRICE (USD)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE10.71+41.0%(as of27 May 2026) +VNETis ourtop pick,given:1)early-moveradvantage;2)stronggrowthpipelinebeyond2028;3)CATLsynergy Buy;raiseTPtoUSD15.10fromUSD14.50;orderupsidenotpriced in;overseas expansionpresents re-rating potential VNET is our top pick among China data centre (DC) operators: Early-mover advantage.a)Existing capacity: VNET has operated in InnerMongoliasince2024andcurrentlyholdsapprovedcapacityreadyforsale.Bycontrast,competitorsstill needtosecurenew"windowguidance"approval.b) Client stickiness: A leading short-video client has run a cluster with VNET inUlanqab, and likely prefers to first expand there for scale benefits. On thecontrary, GDS is still catching up,planning capacity in Horinger,“East Data WestCompute"nodelocation andUlanqab.We estimate VNET's 2026/27adj.EBITDA to grow faster at 25%/24%,vs GDS's 4%/10% (ex.one-offs, Exhibit 1) Strong growth pipeline beyond 2028.We expect 2H26 orderupsideto drive2.growth beyond 2028 amid continued Al investments from internet/short-videocustomers.VNEThas 516MWof capacity under construction,697MW ofnear-term land reserve and 359MW of long-term land reserve, which we think isenough to support utilisation growth into 2028. Synergy upside from CATL deal. CATL (CATL US, HKD700, Buy) will replaceShandong Hi-Speed (0412.HK, not rated) as a major shareholder with 38.1%stakeupondeal completion in4Q26(see:CATLaffliates nowmajorityshareholders,14 May 2026).We expect more detailed announcements on greenenergy,energy storage and overseas cooperations to provide synergyto VNETandactassharepricecatalysts. Helen Fang*Head of Industrials Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhelen.c.fang@hsbc.com.hk+85229966942 Order upside notpriced in; overseas expansion could re-rate: VNET currentlytrades at 7.1x 2027e EV/adj. EBITDA, vs SSE-listed private REITs at 13-14x (atissuance)andGDSat12.7x.Webelievefutureorderupsidehasnotbeenpricedinand overseas expansion could present further re-rating opportunity.VNET hasreceived top client's expression of interest for overseas expansion, and is exploringoptions. Given DayOne's prior success, we think this could drive a re-rate if finalised. Kenneth Chin*, CFAAssociate,Asia IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedkenneth.t.k.chin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2822 4521 Jer Shyuen Chong*Associate, Asia IndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjer.shyuen.chong@hsbc.com.hk+85228998682 Buy; raise TP to USD15.10 from USD14.50: We continue to value VNET using a targetEVladjusted EBITDA multiple of 10.4x, calculated using a 20% discount to GDS's targetmultiple of 13x (reasons on page 8). We applythis target multiple to average 2026e andc41% implied upside, we maintain a Buy rating on future order upside, and overseasexpansion potential driving re-rating. *Employed by a non-US affliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is HSBCFundingtheFuure SurveySentiment, Aland.lick to vw Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer Thisreportmustbereadwiththedisclosuresandtheanalystcertificationsinthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Exhibit5:VNET-Wholesale InternetDCcapacity breakdown, 1Q26 into 2H26, driving faster medium-term growth. Valuationand risks We value VNET using a target EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple of 10.4x, which is calculated usinga 20% discount to GDS's target multiple of 13x. VNET has traded at an average discount of44% to GDS over the past year, but we believe this could narrow to 20% (in-line with thenarrowest point observed in 2024, when VNET's recovery began to accelerate), as we expectfaster growth from VNET in 2026 with its existing capacity in Inner Mongolia, and it hasabundant power reserves to drive growth beyond 2027. RMB4,157m,calculated using the 2026e and 2027e adj.EBITDA average, to better reflectcurrent and medium-term growth potential.Our resulting EV is RMB43bn.After deducting netdebt, minority interest and using a USD/RMB rate of 6.65 (per HSBC FX team's 4Q26e), wearrive ata target price perADR of USD15.10. China Al computing growth with an undemanding valuation. Downside risks plan; slower-than-expected move-in orweaker-than-expected demand from wholesale clients;slowercapacitydeliveryforwholesale IDCs; difficulty acquiring newwholesale customers; andstronger-than-expected price competition dampening margins. Disclosureappendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whosename(s)appear(s)asauthorof anindividual sectionorsectionsofthereportandanyanalyst(s)namedasthecoveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation ce