全球AI基础设施资本支出的明确受益者；仍然是我们在2026年的首选

infrastructure capex; remains ourtop pick in 2026 A clear beneficiary of global AIinfrastructurecapex;remains our top pick in 2026 2025 has proven a standout year for optical transceiversuppliers with highAIexposure, withdomesticindustry leader Innolight delivering stellar 9M25results: Revenue and net profit soared44%/90% YoY, while 3Q25gross marginexpanded9pptto 43% froma year ago.Strong financials fueled a share pricerally, with Innolight’s stock surging380%+ YTD as of Dec 11.Lookingaheadinto 2026,we double down on AI asone of our key themes,underpinnedby anunabated AI infrastructure investment cycle andasustained mix shift to higher- Target PriceRMB707.00(Previous TPRMB591.00)Up/Downside21.5%Current PriceRMB582.00 China Semiconductors Lily YANG, Ph.D(852) 3916 3716lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk Capex outlook:upward revisions in consensuscontinue.The US BigFourhyperscalers(Google,Microsoft,Meta,Amazon)ramped capexaggressively:US$230bn in 2024 (+55% YoY),US$259bn in 9M25 (+65%YoY), with 2025 full-year capexprojectedby Bloomberg consensusto reach Kevin ZHANG(852) 3761 8727kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk US$367bn (+59% YoY).Bloomberg consensuspoints to another35% YoYgrowth in 2026, pushing capex to US$495bn.Despite a modest 14%consensusgrowthfor 2027 andlingeringAI bubbledebates, we remainbullishthatAI infrastructure investment will continue to grow, with upward revisionpotentials:2025 Big Fourcapex growthconsensus was 33% in Janand Jiahao Jiang(852) 39163739JiangJiahao@cmbi.com.hk Supply chaincapacity expansion underway.Mgmt.previouslyflaggedtightsupplyofkey optical components such as EMLs(electro-absorptionmodulated lasers).Although we expect the tightness to continue into 2026,we believe Innolight iswellpreparedforthe challenges,givencapacity TheUS allowedthe exports of Nvidia’s H200to Chinaon Dec 8:Acatalyst for next AI compute upcyclein China.PerReuters, the H200delivers ~6x the performanceas H20, lifting the compute ceiling for Chinesehyperscalers. This should translate into structurally higher requirements for ReiterateBUY on Innolight,with TP adjusted to RMB707,based onthesame28x2026E P/E,at a premiumto historical 5-year avg (27x)given itsabsolute leadership in theoptical transceiver industry.Wereviseup ourrevenue forecasts by 14% for 2026on higher consensus capex fromprevious updates (21% upward revision in November). We alsoliftGPM to46.2% (vs. prior 44.3%), givenafavorable mixshifttowards 1.6T and rising Source: FactSet Source: Company data, CMBIGM estimates Source: Company data, CMBIGMestimates Source: Company data, Bloomberg consensus, CMBIGM Source: Company data, Bloomberg consensus, CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers AnalystCertification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies thatwith respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the code of conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar daysprior to the date of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s) covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3)serve as an officer of any of the HongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies covered in this report. : Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months: Stock with potential return of +15% to-10% over next12 months: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in this report may not be suitable forthe purposes of all investors.CMBIGMdoes not provide individually tailored investment advice. This report has been prepared without regard to the individual investment objectives, financial positionor special requirements. Past performance has no indication of future performance, and actual events may differ materially from that which is contained in thereport.The value of, and returns from, any investments are uncertain and are not guaranteed and may fluctuate as a result of their dependence on the or its affiliate(s) to whom it is distributed. This report is not and should not be construed as anoffer or solicitation to buy or sell any security or any interest insecurities or enter into any transaction.NeitherCMBIGMnor any of its affiliates, shareholders, agents, consultants, directors, officers or employees shall beliable for any loss, damage or e