爱彼迎：伯恩斯坦战略决策会议最佳想法幻灯片及投资者会议要点

Richard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com Niall Mitchelson+44 20 7676 7144niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com Lasith Siriwardana+44 20 7550 2191lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com Price Target Airbnb: Bernstein SDC best ideas slides & key take aways frominvestor meetings We presented Airbnb as our best idea at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, andhosted the company for investor meetings. Close Date28 May 2026ABNB Close Price (USD)134.50Price Target (USD)168.00Upside/(Downside)25%52-Week Range147.25/110.81SPX7,563.63FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)81,064EV (USD) (M)71,593 Airbnb has an underappreciated growth outlook, and is beginning to accelerate - themarket has not yet caught up:(1)A structural lodging supply / demand imbalancecould drive HSD core growth.Between robust lodging demand growth, and sluggish hotelsupply growth weighed down by rising rates, raw material costs and labor costs - VR as themost elastic component of lodging naturally captures excess demand.(2) Internationalwhitespace.Outside its core markets Airbnb is under penetrated. APAC, Europe, and LATAMall offer a meaningful growth opportunity, and Airbnb are beginning to capitalize - growingmore than 20% in all regions ex-US in 26Q1.(3)The Airbnb platform is undermonetized.Airbnb is pushing into new verticals, including hotels, experiences, and services, all of which>7X the TAM, while platform tooling, payments and advertising all offer incremental upside. Growth acceleration could drive estimate upside and a re-rating.Cumulatively we seeconsensus expectations of 10% revenue growth as far too conservative - we model 12%, butthe company is currently delivering 15%, with line of sight to 20% top line growth. Not onlydoes this mean we expect upside to estimates, but also a re-rating - for every additional 1%of top line growth Airbnb gets rewarded with a 1.5-2X higher EV / EBITDA multiple. Investor meetings focused on growth initiatives.Hotels were a key topic, Airbnb havemoved from 4 pilot markets to 20 cities, beyond markets constrained by regulation. Earlydata indicates hotels are not cannibalizing core VR demand, instead boosting conversionand opening up new demand (i.e. business). Airbnb also discussed a more open attitudeto partnerships (e.g. Instacart/Delta), and discussed how tweaks to the platform such asdynamic pricing could drive GBV growth. AI was inevitably a topic, and Airbnb indicated anopenness to paying for AI traffic, but ideally want detailed prompts entered on Airbnb, AIsearch functionality would also be required before considering sponsored listings. Investment Implications Airbnb is our best idea in online travel, with a growth acceleration well underway but not yetpriced in, we expect this to drive both estimate upside and a re-rating - Outperform. DETAILS AIRBNB AT THE STRATEGIC DECISIONS CONFERENCE We hosted Airbnb’s Andrew Slabin, Vice President of Investor Relations, for investor group meetings. The key topics ofdiscussion were: •Hotels •Moved beyond the 4 pilot markets to now 20 cities. This moves the product beyond markets where regulation meanslimited supply to those with more robust homes businesses. However, they have not seen fill rates drop suggestingdemand/conversion is incremental.•Conscious of Airbnb now competing more with supply that helped build the platform but above suggests this isincremental, this is bringing new customers to the platform, and credit will be reinvested into homes demand.•Next steps are to app more and higher quality supply, more talent (including ex-Booking.com hire this week), whichis growing exponentially, add more cities, continue to improve the merchandising/presentation, and ultimately startmarketing that Airbnb sells hotels.•Hotels want incremental distribution channels, so most happy to work with Airbnb.•Hotels a route into growing more business travel demand.•Current discounting is to build review base and kick off flywheel. •Partnerships •Change in mentality on partnerships, shown with Delta, Instacart etc. Happy to work with others and likely more to come,including to potentially tap into business marketplace.•Partner services seen as a more supportive model for services; Instacart already the number one requested and bookedservice and much easier and more scalable than remote hairdressing etc. •Dynamic pricing •Many properties “set and forget”, i.e. don't alter pricing (lower or higher) for seasonality or demand. Big opportunity tomaximize GMV by building tools to assess this.•Shift to single fee has been supportive of revenue growth, but also has been a good test case for elasticity and shows therevenue upside from altering prices. •AI •Happy to work with and buy traffic from LLMs, but ultimately want detailed prompts to be entered on Airbnb, e.g.“property in Richmond, with a view, 2 bedrooms and accessible by Uber” - this is what they are working towards •AI search would be a pre-requisite to any sponsored list