美洲能源与转型：AEGT：2025年战略决策会议要点及最佳创意推介

www.bernsteinresearch.com •Value focused (not volume focused) and disciplined•Please find our initiation and Haynesville deepdive here: AE&T: Expand your mind andyour wallet follows...Initiating Outperform on Expand Energy (EXE); Americas Energy &Transition: What the future decades hold for the Haynesville Shale2 BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingAPAMCCO.CTOCCJOLNGOCQPMCVXMCOPODVNOFANGOEOGMEQTOEXEOXOMOHESOKOSMKOS.LNMVGMSPXEDMO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedCCO.CT, CCJ, LNG, CQP, EQT estimate is Reported EPS; CCO.CT, CCJ, LNG, CQP valuation is Reported P/E (x); EQT, EXE, VG valuation is EV/EBITDA (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSEXE (Outperform) is one of our favorite equities to invest in the Haynesville value over volume theme. Another strategy to investin the future of gas theme is EQT (Outperform), which has the highest beta to gas price.AMERICAS ENERGY & TRANSITION DETAILSWe begin with a summary of company-specific takeaways, followed by our slides for the Best Idea Pitches.Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM) -Presenter: Neil Chapman, Senior Vice PresidentTakeaway:Long-Term bullish outlook for energy demand projecting 15% global energy demand growth by 2050 with oil and gas remaining50% of the energy mix. Demand is driven by emerging markets, AI/data centers, and LNG exports, particularly in Europe (post-Russia supply disruptions). XOM is well-positioned with a diverse product portfolio.Highlights:•Current oil price volatility ($65 Brent) is seen as a normal cycle, with long-term prices supported by 10% annual industrydepletion (requiring constant new investment). U.S. natural gas is viewed as a growth driver, with LNG exports (e.g., GoldenPass project) and decarbonized power for data centers fueling demand.•High-Quality asset base to support growth strategy, including Guyana, LNG & Downstream Integration. Golden Pass LNGexport facility (18 MTPA, 30% stake) launching in late 2025, leveraging low-cost conversion of an existing import terminal.Refineries are integrated with chemical plants (e.g., Proxima), upgrading low-value molecules (e.g., pentane) into high-marginplastics and synthetics.•Disciplined capital allocation & shareholder returns: allocates ~$28–30B annually to projects with over 10% returns, andmaintains a fortress balance sheet (7% net debt-to-capital, AA credit rating), enabling resilience through cycles. Maintainsdividend growth for 42 consecutive years, and hopes to make it a routineCheniere Energy (LNG) -Presenter: Zach Davis, CFO and Anatol Feygin, CCOTakeaway:Cheniere remains bullish on long-term global LNG demand reaching 700 mtpa by 2040 (from ~400 mtpa in 2024), driven bysignificant growth from Asian markets. With over 95% of capacity contracted through the 2030s, Cheniere is leveraging itsintegrated infrastructure and disciplined strategy to expand capacity to ~75 mtpa by early 2030s while maintaining strong cashreturns to shareholders.Highlights:•Demand growth is mostly driven by Asia (China, South and Southeast Asia), with LNG trucking and AI-driven datacenterpower use emerging as incremental growth levers.•Europe remains the “market of most need”, crowding out South Asia buyers and will continue to attract cargoes throughpremium TTF prices. Management sees line of sight to HSD clearing price in Europe, and low risks of Russia gas flowing backinto the market at least for this year and the first half of 2026.•Cheniere has been able to anchor 95% of its LNG volumes under long-term take-or-pay contracts (at about 15-year averageduration) with about +30 different counterparties that have an A- average credit rating. Capacity is expected to grow from 45mtpa to 75 mtpa by early 2030s through expansion projects (midscale 8 and 9 at Corpus Christi and train 7 and 8 at SabinePass). Each project is underwritten to deliver +10% unlevered returns with lump-sum turnkey EPC contracts with Bechtel.•Cheniere emphasizes the scale advantage of large-scale trains (~5 mtpa capacity) vs. midscale units (1.5-2 mtpa capacity) inland use, pipeline, tanks and berth. The integrated gas procurement model remains core to the strategy in contrast to tolling-only peers.EOG Resources (EOG)- Presenter: Ezra Yacob, Chairman & CEOTakeaway:AMERICAS ENERGY & TRANSITION 4 EOG anchors capital allocation to "bottom cycle pricing" for resilience, focuses on "through-the-cycle" shareholder value, andviews current oil volatility as demand-driven (transitory tariffs impact) while remaining constructive on medium-long-termfundamentals due to low inventories and strong demand. EOG maintains a balanced strategic approach to organic growth and adisciplined approach to M&A while sustaining a strong balance sheet.Highlights:•EOG is bullish on North American natural gas demand (4–6% CAGR), leveraging the Dorado play’s strategic location andflexible pricing agreements (generating a $1.3B uplift since 2020).•The Permian remains in