上调AI电力需求预测（月度 - 2026年5月）

ChinaHong Kong China UtilitiesSector Utilities Raising Al power demand forecasts(Monthly - May 2026) ResearchAnalyst+852-2203-5889 China's Al-related power demand saw strong growth in April 2026,driven by continued expansion in data centres and digital infrastructure.Overall electricityconsumption rose 6.0%YoY,but the tertiary sector-whereIT services sitoutpacedthisat+8.9%YoY.Withinthis,internetanddataservicesrecordedasharp42.8%YoYincreaseinpowerconsumption,extendinganaccelerationtrendfrom>30%in2025.This sustainedstep-upcloselytracksa sharpaccelerationindatacentre deployment.According to Ministryof Industry and Information Technology,China's data centre capacity expanded from 9.00mn standard racks in 2024 to12.50mnin2025andfurtherto14.45mnby1Q26,withgrowthacceleratingto39%YoYinboth2025and1Q26(vs.11%in2024). Reflectingthisfaster-than-expected ramp-up,wehaveupdatedourpreviousforecasts(2026outlook report)withthelatestcapacityandpowerdemanddata.Weraiseour2030datacentrepowerdemandestimateby46%to805bnkWh,implying~6%ofChina'stotalelectricityconsumption (from~4.1%previously;vs.<2%in2025),incorporatingthelatestacceleration inbothcapacitybuild-outandpower demand growth. This is in line with the latest remarks this week by WangHongzhi, head of the National Energy Administration (NEA),indicating annualincrementaldatacentrepowerdemandcouldexceed100bnkWhtill2030. UtilitiesChinaUtilitiesSector China's solarnewinstallations slowed sharplyinApril2026to9.5GW,down79% YoY versus 45.2GW in April 2025, but the magnitude of the decline is heavilyskewed by last year's policy-driven high base-installations were pulled forwardahead of an end-May deadline,which drove an unusually large spike in April-May2025.OnaYTDbasis,4M26additions(51GW)declinedc.51%YoY.TheYoYdeclineshould moderate into2H26 on a lower base,and ourfull-yearestimate remainsunchanged at 215GW, implying a 32%YoY decline. WithinChinautilities,ourtoppicksareChina ResourcesPower(0836.HK),China YangtzePower(600900.SS)andChinaGas(0384.HK),witha focus on dividendvisibilityand resilient cashflows amid a mixed sectorbackdrop.China ResourcesPoweris supported by an above-power-peer dividend yield (>5%),with additionalupside potential fromAl-related loadgrowth as data centre expansion lifts powerdemand.ChinaYangtzePoweroffers stableearningsandpayoutvisibilitygivenitshydro profile,with the keynear-term variable being summer waterinflows duringthe peak season. China Gas has the highest dividend yield (~7%)among utilitiesunder our coverage, and its newly proposed share option scheme has a~15%annual profit growth target through FY31, well above current market expectations. Previousissues:March2025,April2025,May2025,June2025,July2025,August2025,September2025,October2025,November2025,December2025,January2026,March 2026 UtilitiesChina Utilities Sector PowerandAl4Power and Al..5Power demand growth in April ..Power supply-hydro momentum remains in the nearterm.Powerutilization....8Power capacities additions...9Powertariffs and coal prices....10Valuationcomparison-renewableoperators..11Renewable operators-one-year-forward P/B history...Renewable operators-dividend yield history...Gasdemandtrendingweaker......14ChinaGas-newshareoptionschemeproposed....15Valuation comparison-gas utilities....16Gas utilities - one-year-forward P/E history .....17Gas utilities -Dividend yield history.....18 Power and Al period.By2025, the industry consumed196bn kWh of electricityannually,accounting for1.9%of China'stotal powerdemand.By1Q26,China'soperatingdatacentrecapacityreached14.45mnstandardracks,up39%YoY,markingaclearaccelerationfromlow-teensgrowthin2024 anda23%CAGRover2019-24.Atthe same time,IT-related powerdemandgrowthpickedupfrom2H25,withmonthlygrowth at18-21%YoYfrom2H25through 4M26, versus 15%in 1H25. Power and Al reach805bnkWh,accountingfor6.0%ofChina'stotalpowerconsumption,representing a neartriplingfromthe2025level. InApril 2026,China's power consumption recorded a 6.0%YoY, a notable acceleration compared to the +3.5%YoY in March 2025.Industrial/Servicel Residentialpowerdemandindicatescontinuedgrowthtrajectory,risingby5.3%/8.9%/6.0%YoY,respectively.Agriculturalpowerdemandeasedto+2.0%YoYinApril 2026.Withinthe service industry,the InformationTechnology (IT)sector's powerdemand exhibited robust growth of 19%YoY inApril 2026(sameas2H25). China'stotalpowergenerationvolumeincreasedby2.6%YoYto744bnkWh inApr2026,acceleratingfrom the1.4%YoYgrowthobserved inMar2026. Thermal output experienceda slowerbut still positive YoYincrease of 3.1% (vs.4.2%YoYin Mar2026).Hydro output continuedto surgeby12.2%YoY (vs.10.8%YoYin Mar2026).Solarpoweroutputmoderatedtoa7.1%YoYinApr2026(comparedwith+10%YoYinMar2026).Windpoweroutputexperiencedalessseveredecrease Deutsche Bank AG/HongKongof 5%YoYin Apr2026 (vs.-17.3%in March 2026).Nuclear power output saw a less pronounced dropof 8.7%YoYin Apr 2026 (vs.11.8%YoYdecreaseinMarch2026). Thermal.We calculate thatthermal utilization hours decreased3.3%YoYinApr