eBay和Etsy：伯恩斯坦战略决策会议纪要

EBAY and ETSY: Takeaways from Bernstein's SDC Today at our Strategic Decisions Conference, we hosted EBAY CEO Jamie Iannone forinvestor meetings, and ETSY CFO Lanny Baker for a fireside chat and investor meetings.Our general takeaway is that the ‘vibes’ in eCommerce are starting to feel better, led bystabilization and ongoing improvement in Active Buyer growth. Both companies made similarcomments around a choppy operating environment but a resilient US consumer. EBAY’sfocus continues to be on enhancing category experiences, with the company excited aboutgrowth opportunities in verticals like C2C and vehicles. The messaging from ETSY wasone of greater personalization and driving improvements to loyalty and retention. AgenticCommerce and AI were key points of discussion as well, with both companies framing thetechnology as positives for discovery and eCommerce adoption. Nikhil Devnani, CFA+1 917 344 8425nikhil.devnani@bernsteinsg.com Nathan Gee+1 917 344 8573nathan.gee@bernsteinsg.com Ajeya Patil, CFA+1 917 344 8467ajeya.patil@bernsteinsg.com EBAYcontinues to sound positive on the broad-based nature of the GMV strength ithas seen, the underlying growth in buyers (notably US enthusiasts), and the horizontalinitiatives that are now starting to compliment vertical efforts (e.g., the magical/bulklistings experience enhancing trading cards). Despite these investments in product and AIenhancements, the company remains fiscally responsible and looks for offsets (e.g., recentRIF created capacity), striking a balance between GMV and EBIT gowth. If 2025 was a yearof product investment, in Q4 onward there seems to have been a shift towards S&M (mostrecently leaning in lower funnel) to support business growth in 2026. ETSYremains a debate of (sustainable) GMS growth, and 2026 is an important yeartoward proving out the durability of a turnaround. Under new CEO Kruti Patel Goyal (andher relatively new leadership team), ETSY is putting greater emphasis on the buyer andseller experience as it orients the business around four strategic pillars: (1) product andoccasion discovery; (2) better matching shoppers to the right inventory; (3) retaining andrewarding the most loyal customers; and (4) amplifying the ‘human connection’ element ofETSY’s seller base and merchandise, which is unique to the platform vs. other eCommercemarketplaces. Unlocking frequency remains important from our point of view. Please see the details section for more in depth takeaways from our meetings. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate ETSY and EBAY Market-Perform. DETAILS TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR FIRESIDE CHAT WITH ETSY CFO, LANNY BAKER Getting back to durable growth is the priority.Management noted that its priority right now is to get the business back todurable GMS growth. The company is less focused on levers like take rate at this juncture, and is unsatisfied with the notionof lagging eCommerce trends more broadly. It has been a choppy operating environment in recent years, but the businessshowed resilience in Q1 with categories such as Home and Jewelry doing better. The 2026 guide acknowledges toughercompares and lapping dynamics like FX and AOV increases, but points to positive Y/Y GMS growth through the balance of theyear nonetheless. We asked management about what drove the increased confidence in guiding for a full year (rather than onequarter at a time) — ETSY pointed to the stabilization in Active Buyers (and improvement in Gross Adds) as well as being able tomap recent product improvements to these healthier upper funnel trends. Building blocks — Active Buyers and frequency.Active Buyers sequentially stabilized in Q1, with Gross Adds better ona Y/Y basis in the quarter as well. As it relates to New Buyers, the company benefited from a combination of: (1) Amazon’sdeparture from PLAs + self-driven marketing improvements; and (2) an improvement in organic search. Etsy acknowledgesthe importance of frequency to drive long-term GMS growth, with half of buyers only purchasing once per year. The company’sproduct and personalization investments are geared toward increasing repeat engagement and purchase cadence. From ourpoint of view, frequency is the key area we’d like to see ETSY improve to gain increased conviction in out-year growth rates. Wethink this comes down to cross-category shopping and the company’s ability to unlock more shopping occasions. Personalization (mobile + data) is key, but still early.ETSY is still early on the journey of systematic data collection (neededfor personalization), but the Mobile app is one tool/channel that can enable this. It’s now ~47% of GMS and central to the overallretention and loyalty push given the logged-in nature of the user base and the ability to power a richer experience. There isalso a causal effect, where the Mobile app influences and drives stronger GMS growth amongst cohorts. Reactivations havebenefited from push and email notifications, which have grown to rival Google