GXO物流：利润率提升机会丰富；上调至增持评级

Margin Opportunities Abound;Upgrade to Overweight GXO leadership is likely to target a more profitable futureleveraging automation and robotics to achieve best-in-classmargins while focusing growth ambitions in the NorthAmerican market; we upgrade GXO shares to Overweight. GXOOVERWEIGHTfrom Equal Weight Price TargetUSD 65.00raised 12% from USD 58.00 THE 2026 EXTEL SURVEY IS NOW OPEN Market Cap (USD mn)5514Shares Outstanding (mn)115.05Free Float (%)97.8352 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)1.2Dividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)4.52Current BVPS (USD)25.80Source: Bloomberg Support our industry-leadinganalysts with 5-Star votes inthis year’s Extel All-AmericaResearch Survey View Analysts Price PerformanceExchange-NYSE52 Week rangeUSD 66.85-39.90 We appreciate your 5 Star Vote in the Airfreight & Surface Transportation category. We see long-term value in GXO shares, driving our upgrade to Overweight (from EqualWeight), as the company pursues a more profitable future with a renewed focus on growthin the lucrative North American contract logistics market.GXO shares have underperformedthis year (down 17% vs. S&P YTD), pressured by a convergence of market fears that has weighedheavily on the stock and, in our view, created an opportunity for patient investors. The Iran-USconflict, and the correspondingeffecton an already fragile European consumer, have stokedfear among GXO investors; further, Amazon's recent announcement of consolidated logisticsofferingsearlier this month has created market concerns of a new competitive threat totraditional logistics providers. However, we believe that GXO's renewed focus on US expansionand margin improvement under new CEO Patrick Kelleher will serve the company well even in amore competitive environment. In this note we provide analysis of GXO relative profitabilitycompared to global competitors and analyze earnings upside scenarios if the company canmatch best in class margin profitabilily outcomes as has been publicly suggested by Mr.Kelleher. We expect the company will host an analyst meeting later this year and provide new Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting North America TransportationBrandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, US Eric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, US Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. David Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, US Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 8.Completed: 27-May-26, 04:09 GMTReleased: 27-May-26, 04:13 GMTRestricted - External long-term guidance pointing to multi-year revenue growth potential and higher margins,supporting meaningful EPS and free cash flow expansion. Recent European and Amazon concerns for GXO are valid but likely less impactful on thelong-term earnings outlook for the company.GXO under prior CEO leadership was quiteEurope-focused, completing three major UK or continental contract logistics acquisitionsbetween 2021 and 2024 and increasing Europe revenue exposure by 17 points. The risk of higherfuel prices driving further malaise for the European consumer has weighed on stocks such asGXO (we find European core retail sales recently lagged the US by 230 bps; see "A State ofTransport" for more details). However, GXO's recentshiftunder new leadership to focus on USexpansion should reduce investors' weighting of potential weakness in Europe.Further, Amazon's recently announced re-branded supply chainoffering(see "Amazon LogisticsStrikes Again," published 5 May 2026) on the surface appears to target contract logisticsproviders, with Amazon able to bundle additional logistics and supply chain products withinventory management and fulfillment services. GXO management has responded to theannouncement by noting that the vast majority of the company’s business consists of bespoke,customer-specific solutions that do not fit a standardized model, in contrast to Amazon’s sale ofaccess to the company’s existing infrastructure and supply chain practices. We believe Amazonwill remain a competitor, but GXO's renewed US focus should allow the company to competewell in the growing market, with management estimating that only 20% of the addressable UScontract logistics market has outsourced operations. Management is targeting outsized growth in the US and a narrowing of the margin gap topeers, both of which could drive material earnings expansion.With respect to margins, Mr.Kelleher has noted targeting margins "at or better than [GXO's] peer group." He specified at ourFebruary Industrial Select Conference (see "Conference Takeaways") that the peer groupincludes DSV, DHL and Ryde