Vertiv Holdings Co. 近期股价波动创造具吸引力的入场点；上调至增持评级

Recent stock volatility createsattractive entry point; upgrade to VRTOVERWEIGHTfrom Equal WeightU.S. Multi-IndustryNEUTRALUnchangedPrice TargetUSD 200.00raised 10% from USD 181.00Price (30-Dec-25)USD 164.34+21.7% We see substantial upside potential to Street EPS ests. for2026 and 2027, which will likely drive share px For our overall MI sector thoughts into 2026, please see our Outlook report HERE. Pleaseregister HERE for our 2026 Outlook and Q425 Earnings Preview Call on January 9 (Friday), 2026 Market Cap (USD mn)62833Shares Outstanding (mn)382.34Free Float (%)98.3052 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)8.5Dividend Yield (%)0.15Return on Equity TTM (%)38.86Current BVPS (USD)9.18Source: Bloomberg We upgrade our rating on VRT to OW from EW. We raise our EPS estimates, and our PriceTarget moves to $200 from $181. While we have not been among the Datacenter capextheme’s biggest cheerleaders (they are legion), we think the recent volatility in the stockhas created an attractive entry point (down from an ATH of ~$200). With VRT having 1. We see material upside potential to Street EPS estimates…Our EPS estimates are8%/12% above consensus for 2026/2027, respectively, largely due to top-line assumptions. We show below our EPS 'bridges' for VRT. Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting U.S. Multi-Industry Julian Mitchell+1 212 526 1661julian.mitchell@barclays.com Kenyon C Pelletier+1 212 526 7516kenyonc.pelletier@barclays.com Matthew Laflash+1 212 526 8639matthew.laflash@barclays.com We think Street estimate revision momentum will remain the dominant driver of US MI share We think VRT’s initial 2026 guidance should comfortably bracket the consensus EPS estimate atthe high end - the company tends to set a conservative guidance, allowing scope for ‘beat and 2...Due to Datacenter demand:We think the Street is dialing in a deceleration in VRT’s sales As a reminder, ~80% of VRT's sales are driven by Datacenters, which is far ahead of the #2 Third-party data (such as Dell'Oro) supports the concept that the overall Datacenter PhysicalInfrastructure ("DCPI") market growth is likely to remain quite steady into 2026, at a very highrate. For more details, please see our note. We also note that overall hyperscaler capex (which has been growing at ~2X the rate of non-hyperscaler Datacenter capex) is set to continue seeing high growth in 2026. While Streetestimates currently assume a slowdown in hyperscaler capex in 2026, these estimates have 3…Supported by high 'white space' Datacenter revenue exposure...VRT’s relatively highexposure to ‘white space’ product categories within Datacenters is likely to support ongoinghigh growth, even as the ‘gray space’ share of capex shrinks/gray space related equipment We think this positioning will help VRT sustain high DC sales growth. 4...And adifferentiatedcoolingoffering:Thermal Management (not including associated Within Datacenter equipment, we continue to think that liquid cooling represents one of theonly product categories that is still somewhat ‘early’ in its up-cycle (as compared with most As one example of the accelerating momentum in liquid cooling, we note that Asia VitalComponents (not covered, liquid cooling systems manufacturer) saw revenue increase +142% / We note that VRT has the 2nd highest exposure to liquid cooling in MI names(afterNVT), andthis market represents ~3% of sales. VRT is quite well placed here, not only because of some ofits acquisitions in this space (such as CoolTera), but also because it has a high market share inthe traditional precision air cooling market (unlike NVT and ETN, as well as the HVAC peers), so Within liquid cooling, we think VRT is wise to remain cold plate agnostic (unlike Boyd Thermal,which ETN is acquiring) - we worry that cold plate is one of the most commoditized parts of theDatacenter equipment (in terms of low barriers to entry for manufacturers, high risk oftechnology disruption at customers, fragmented competition etc). We also worry that the Beyond in-rack / in-row cooling, VRT also has a chiller portfolio for space cooling (unlike NVT orETN). VRT competes here more against the likes of CARR, JCI and TT in our coverage, albeit atthe smaller end of the market - we note that these three Applied CHVAC manufacturers haverelatively minor positions in the liquid cooling market (unlike VRT). 5. Q4 orders data should support above-Street revenue estimates for 2026+:We think theongoing capex push by OpenAI (which started in mid 2025) is continuing to drive outsized near-term orders growth for Datacenter equipment suppliers (as we saw in Q325), both throughindirect (the OpenAI moves pressure other hyperscalers to also invest more) and direct means. Hence, we think that Q4 equipment orders data at VRT (and its peers such as NVT and ETN) willdrive more optimism in the investment community as regards the 2026-2027 revenue outlook. 6. VRT's capacity adds are keeping pace with strong volume demand, ensuring lead